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16 Feb 2026 20:54:33 ET | 18 pages

# NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O)

# Preview – Investors Looking Past Earnings to GTC 2026

## CITI'S TAKE

NVIDIA reports Jan-Q earnings on 2/25. We model Jan-Q sales of $67B above Street $65.6B and expect Apr-Q guide of $73B vs Street $71.6B. We expect continued strong ramp of B300 with Rubin launch to drive a 34% H/H acceleration in CY2H26 sales vs 27% in CY1H26. We believe most investors are looking past the earnings to annual GTC conference in mid-March for NVIDIA to talk about inference roadmap using Groq's low latency SRAM IP and provide an early outlook for 2026/27 AI sales. We expect FY27 GM outlook of ~75% and assume high-30% opex growth or same as FY26. We recommend investors add to NVDA as valuation looks attractive with the stock likely to outperform in 2H26 as demand visibility extends into 2027. We lift our FY25/26/27E EPS ~1% and maintain our target price of $270 on consistent P/E of 30x CY27E EPS. Maintain Buy.

Key Investor Topics — a) Higher component costs impact to expected mid 70s gross margins; b) updates on Anthropic/OpenAI investments; c) inference competition, and d) impact of the Groq licensing agreement on NVIDIA's product roadmap.

Market Concerns on AI Froth — While rising capex levels among U.S. hyperscalers continue to raise concerns among investors, Citi believes these investments will deliver long-term returns as these investments reaccelerate industry revenue and earnings growth, economies of scale, and platform stickiness. Aggregate U.S. hyperscaler cloud revenues accelerated 5pts QoQ and reached $81.7B in Q4, after +2pts in Q3 with the incremental YoY $ growth coming from the continued demand for AI infrastructure and solutions, particularly inference.

Increased Competition on Inference is Natural — We expect the inference market to be more diversified in nature, leaving room for more optionality in model size and specificity in 2026. Therefore, by nature we expect room for a variety in AI accelerator usage. That said, at a system level, we expect NVIDIA to continue to be the leader across both training and reasoning focused inference workloads, and rely on MLPerf as the best apples-to-apples comparison metric for AI accelerators.

Maintain ~75% GM in 2026 despite memory price increases — We model NVIDIA to maintain ~75% gross margins on supply chain scale and ability to pass along higher costs to customers given the strong demand for its products.


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EPS (US$)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Q1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Q2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Q3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Q4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>FY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>FC Cons</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>VA Cons</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.61A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.68A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.81A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.89A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.99A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.99A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.99A</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.81A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.04A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.30A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.55E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.70E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.68E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.71E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Previous</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.81A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.04A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.30A</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.49E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.64E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.68E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.86E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.15E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.48E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8.17E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7.72E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7.74E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Previous</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.66E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.84E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.13E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.46E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8.10E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.49E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.53E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.56E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.57E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.16E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9.97E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9.71E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Previous</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.47E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.51E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.54E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.55E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.08E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td></tr></table>

Source: Company Reports and dataCentral, Citi Research. FC Cons: First Call Consensus. VA Cons: Visible Alpha Consensus.

Click  $ \underline{\text{here}} $ for Visible Alpha consensus data

## Buy


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Price (13 Feb 26 16:00)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>US$182.81</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Target price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>US$270.00</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected share price return</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>47.7%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected dividend yield</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.0%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected total return</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>47.7%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Market Cap</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>US$4,442,200.00</td></tr></table>

## Price Performance

<div style="text-align: center;">(RIC: NVDA.O, BB: NVDA US)</div>


<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_804_718_1124_903.jpg" alt="Image" width="26%" /></div>


Atif Malik $ ^{AC} $

+1-415-951-1892

atif.malik@citi.com

Papa Sylla

+1-212-816-9476

papa.sylla@citi.com

## See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations

Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals.

---


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td colspan="6">NVDA.O: Fiscal year end 31-Jan</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Profit &amp; Loss (US$m)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Sales revenue</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>60,922</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>130,497</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>214,885</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>359,020</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>471,531</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Cost of sales</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-16,621</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-32,638</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-62,122</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-89,287</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-115,759</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Gross profit</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>44,301</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>97,859</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>152,763</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>269,733</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>355,773</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Gross Margin (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>72.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>71.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.5</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBITDA (Adj)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>38,407</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>87,624</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>134,583</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>245,036</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>318,286</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>63.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>62.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>68.3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.5</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Depreciation</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-1,454</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-1,810</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-2,729</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,110</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,275</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Amortisation</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBIT (Adj)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>37,134</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>86,789</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>136,576</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>246,523</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>319,809</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBIT Margin (Adj) (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>61.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>66.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>63.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>68.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.8</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net interest</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>608</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,539</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,084</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,154</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,154</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Associates</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Non-Op/Except/Other Adj</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,924</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-4,302</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-1,970</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-2,961</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-4,198</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Pre-tax profit</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>33,818</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>84,026</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>136,690</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>245,717</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>317,767</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Tax</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,727</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-11,146</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-21,703</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-41,772</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-54,020</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Extraord/ /Min.Int./Pref.div.</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Reported net profit</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30,091</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>72,880</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>114,987</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>203,946</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>263,747</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net Margin (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>49.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55.8</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>53.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>56.8</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55.9</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Core NPAT</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>32,644</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>74,261</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>115,511</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>207,172</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>267,978</td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Per share data</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Reported EPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.21</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.94</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.68</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8.04</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.00</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Core EPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.31</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.99</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.70</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8.17</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.16</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>DPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.16</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.16</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.16</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.16</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.16</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>CFPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.14</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.58</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3.95</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7.01</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9.91</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>FCFPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.45</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3.68</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6.59</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9.37</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>BVPS ($)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.74</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3.24</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5.23</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.81</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18.05</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Wtd avg.ord shares (m)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,693</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,555</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,426</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25,191</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>26,214</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Wtd avg diluted shares (m)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,933</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,805</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,588</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25,352</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>26,382</td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Growth rates</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Sales revenue (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>125.9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>114.2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>64.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>31.3</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBIT (Adj) (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>310.8</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>133.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>57.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>80.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>29.7</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Core NPAT (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>290.2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>127.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>79.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>29.4</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Core EPS (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>292.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>128.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>56.9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>74.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24.3</td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Balance Sheet (US$m)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Cash &amp; cash equiv.</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25,984</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>43,210</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75,778</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>182,074</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>363,798</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Accounts receivables</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9,999</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>23,065</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>39,288</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>64,199</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>71,992</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Inventory</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,282</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10,080</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>21,781</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>35,699</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>39,192</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net fixed &amp; other tangibles</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15,841</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25,480</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24,618</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>34,245</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>46,576</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Goodwill &amp; intangibles</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,542</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,995</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6,094</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,987</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6,013</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Financial &amp; other assets</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3,080</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3,771</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,979</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,839</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,817</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total assets</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>65,728</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>111,601</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>170,539</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>325,042</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>530,389</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Accounts payable</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,699</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6,310</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9,495</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15,562</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17,084</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Short-term debt</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,250</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>999</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>999</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>999</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Long-term debt</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9,578</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12,708</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14,162</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14,162</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14,162</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Provisions &amp; other liab</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9,223</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>13,256</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17,370</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17,898</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17,959</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total liabilities</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>22,750</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>32,274</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>42,025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>48,621</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>50,205</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Shareholders’ equity</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>42,978</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>79,327</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>128,514</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>276,421</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>480,184</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Minority interests</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total equity</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>42,978</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>79,327</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>128,514</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>276,421</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>480,184</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net debt (Adj)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-15,156</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-30,502</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-60,617</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-166,913</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-348,637</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net debt to equity (Adj) (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-35.3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-38.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-47.2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-60.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-72.6</td></tr></table>

For definitions of the items in this table, please click here.


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Valuation ratios</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>PE (x)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>61.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>38.9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>22.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18.0</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>PB (x)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>56.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>35.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>16.9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10.1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EV/EBITDA (x)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>na</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>50.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>32.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>13.1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>FCF yield (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1.3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5.1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Dividend yield (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0.1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Payout ratio (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>ROE (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>92.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>119.2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>110.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>100.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>69.7</td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Cashflow (US$m)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2028E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EBITDA</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>34,480</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>83,318</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>132,607</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>241,274</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>313,488</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Working capital</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,723</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-9,383</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-20,014</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-32,092</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-9,681</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Other</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-2,335</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-9,844</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-15,397</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-31,355</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-42,365</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Operating cashflow</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>28,422</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>64,091</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>97,197</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>177,828</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>261,442</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Capex</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-1,068</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,236</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-6,770</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-10,771</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-14,146</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net acq/disposals</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-8,563</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-16,070</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-6,654</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-6,457</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-9,479</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Other</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-971</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-1,115</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-12,009</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-3,878</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-4,831</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Investing cashflow</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-10,602</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-20,421</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-25,433</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-21,105</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-28,456</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Dividends paid</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>0</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Financing cashflow</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-13,634</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-38,639</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-53,697</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-50,425</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-51,259</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Net change in cash</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4,186</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,031</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18,067</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>106,297</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>181,727</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Free cashflow to s/holders</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>27,354</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>60,855</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90,427</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>167,057</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>247,296</td></tr></table>

---

## Jan-Q Earnings Preview

### 1. Earnings preview

We revise up our Jan-Q estimates from prior $65B following stronger-than-expected demand for Blackwell showcased by optical networking companies' aggregate AI sales outperformance over the Jun/Dec-2025 timeframe (see Figure 2). We model ~$1.5B upside in Jan-Q with sales reaching $67.1B vs. Street's $65.6B. Going into Apr-Q, we expect a 9% QoQ sales uptick to $73B (Street $71.6B). We expect a continued strong ramp of B300 as foreshadowed by the faster-than-expected ramp of 1.6T transceivers. We model data center sales in Jan-Q/Apr-Q to grow sequentially +20%/+10% QoQ vs. Street +17%/+10%. We expect NVIDIA to hold Apr-Q GM% of ~75%, OpEx to increase to ~$5.3B or +8% Q/Q assuming high 30% OpEx growth in FY27 or same as FY26.

Investor focus is on: a) higher component costs impact on expected mid 70s gross margins; b) details on Anthropic/OpenAI investments; c) increasing competition on inference; and d) impact of the Groq licensing agreement on NVIDIA's product roadmap.

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 1. NVDA Jan-Q Earnings Preview</div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>F4Q26E- Jan</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Guidance</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Citi</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Street</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Revenue ($M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$65,000 +/- 2%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$67,074</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$65,582</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Sequential growth</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EPS (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1.54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1.52</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Gross Margin (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75% +/- 50bps</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.0%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.2%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>OpEx (non-GAAP, $M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$6,700; FY26 High 30%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$4,953</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Operating Margin (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.6%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.3%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Tax rate</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17% +/- 1%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>F1Q27E- Apr</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Guidance</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Citi</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Street</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Revenue ($M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$73,013</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$71,603</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Sequential growth</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>EPS (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1.67</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1.67</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Gross Margin (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>75.0%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>74.9%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>OpEx (non-GAAP, $M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$5,345</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Operating Margin (non-GAAP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67.7%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>74.0%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Tax rate</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>16.9%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr></table>

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<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 2. AI Optics Sales and NVIDIA Data Center Revenue Correlation</div>


<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_473_217_1104_541.jpg" alt="Image" width="51%" /></div>


© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Company Reports, FactSet

### 2. Market concerns on AI froth

While rising capex levels among U.S. hyperscalers continue to raise concerns among investors, Citi believes these investments will deliver long-term returns as these investments reaccelerate industry revenue and earnings growth, economies of scale, and platform stickiness. Enterprise adoption is accelerating as AI use-cases in production grew by 3pts to 24% in 4Q25, according to Citi's latest CIO survey, and we generally observe efficiency gains of 20-30% based on available customer studies. See Citi's AI framework and links to recent reports below:

Global Artificial Intelligence - The ROI on AI: Accelerating Enterprise Adoption

Driving Hyperscaler Returns

Artificial Intelligence - ROI on AI: Growth Acceleration & Returns Drive Capex Revisions

The outlook for Big Five cloud data center capex remains strong with Citi FY26 expectations for three of the five revised higher. We note current Citi analysts' projections point to aggregate data center capex growth of > 60% Y/Y in 2026 and high-teens growth in 2027. Higher 2026 estimates YTD mostly reflect higher memory costs since DRAM component pricing is up >2x from Dec-Q last year and likely some pull-forward of spend given supply shortages, at least in part, in our view.

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 3. Big Five Hyperscale Capex Revised Up to > 60% Y/Y in 2026</div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$ millions</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2024</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2025</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2026E</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Amazon (AWS)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>53,436</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90,080</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>149,790</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Meta</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>39,225</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>72,215</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>124,330</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Google</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>52,535</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>91,447</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>182,463</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Microsoft (Azure)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>67,746</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>108,836</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>139,800</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Oracle</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10,241</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>35,901</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>61,704</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Big Five US</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$223,183</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$398,480</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$658,086</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Year-over-Year (%)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>70%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>79%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>65%</td></tr></table>

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Company Reports

---

Moreover, investor concerns around the mix of debt and circular financing around AI capex persist; fundamentally we see AI supply below demand due to memory/CoWoS constraints through 2026, and likely 2027 as well, as the continued pivot toward inference. The latter point is further accentuated by aggregate hyperscaler cloud revenues accelerating 5pts QoQ and reaching $81.7B in Q4, after +2pts in Q3, with the incremental YoY $ growth coming from the continued demand for AI infrastructure and solutions (see note from Citi Software team). This, coupled with major hyperscalers showing no signs of slowing cloud capex, give us confidence in NVIDIA's continued robust data center growth. Amid the Rubin launch in CY2H26, we expect H/H DC sales acceleration to 34% vs the 27% H/H growth in CY1H26.

We continue to expect strong GPU units' growth in FY26/FY27. We model NVIDIA GPU units reaching 7.1M (+27% Y/Y) and 10.2M units (+44% Y/Y) in FY26 and FY27, respectively, with notably units of Blackwell representing 6.2M in FY2026. Backed by units' upticks and favorable product mix, we estimate FY26/FY27 sales reaching ~$160B (+55%)/$269B (+68%). We expect sales of AI GPUs to represent on average high 80% to 90% of total NVIDIA data center sales in FY26–FY27, with the remaining being comprised primarily of networking (Ethernet and InfiniBand), standalone CPUs, and software/services offerings.

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 4. NVDA AI GPU Sales</div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td rowspan="2"></td><td colspan="3">Fiscal 2025</td><td colspan="3">Fiscal 2026</td><td colspan="3">Fiscal 2027</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Quarterly</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Annual</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>ASP (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Quarterly</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Annual</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>ASP (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Quarterly</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Annual</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>ASP (K)</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Hoper Units (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$20</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>210</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>640</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$12</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Blackwell Units (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>100</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$24</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,700</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$24</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$200 A (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>100</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$27</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$20</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$300</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$26</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$25</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Rude Units (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>800</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$35</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Other Units (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>-</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>26</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$1</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total OPUs Units (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5,600</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$18</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1,774</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7,095</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$22</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2,557</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10,226</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$26</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Y/d</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>210%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>27%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>44%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Hoper Sales (SP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$91,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$10,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$2,250</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Blackwell Sales (SP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$12,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$149,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$104,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$20 A (K)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$12,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$92,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$24,400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$300</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$57,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$140,000</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Rude Sales (SP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$102,400</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Other Sales (SP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$273</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$110</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total OPUs Sales (SP)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$102,200</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$159,563</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$208,780</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Y/d</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>85%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>88%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr></table>

<div style="text-align: center;">© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research</div>


### 3. Increased competition on inference is natural

On February 12, Open AI announced the availability for preview of its new GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark model, enabling over 1,000 tokens/s for ultra-fast inference. We estimate this news to be in-line with our expectations around a diversification of the AI accelerators in outer years as more inference workloads are deployed. We expect the inference market to be more diversified in nature, leaving room for more optionality in model size and specificity. Therefore, by nature we expect room for a variety in AI accelerator usage driving our assumption of NVIDIA $ share of merchant GPUs to 85% in CY26 from 94% in CY25 and merchant GPUs going to 55% from 65% of total AI accelerator units in the same period. That said, at a system level, we expect NVIDIA to continue to be the leader across both training and reasoning focused inference workloads. We continue to rely on MLPerf as the best apples-to-apples comparison metric for AI accelerators. On its last published version in November, GB300 NVL72 delivered the highest throughput on all inference tests, demonstrating technology leadership beyond the chip level. While we believe these impressive results do include enhanced software such as NVIDIA TensorRT-LLM (an open-source software library developed to optimize inference), we find the latest results to be better indicators of NVIDIA's chips and server dominance than before as increasingly we see other accelerators such as GOOGL's

---

(covered by Ron Josey) TPU participate in more tests. Amid these results, we see further evidence of NVIDIA's TCO leadership, which will continue to be key to the strong Blackwell ramp.

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 5. AI Accelerators Sales Breakdown</div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>C2025E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>C2026E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>C2027E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>C2028E</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>C2025E-C2028E CAGR</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Merchant GPU Units (M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>11.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>27%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>51%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>24%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>% of total accelerators units</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>65%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>62%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>55%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Merchant GPU Total Sales ($B)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$206</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$284</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$367</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$403</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>38%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>29%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>% of total accelerators sales</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>86%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>82%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>81%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Compute ASIC Units (M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4.1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7.0</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>11.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12.7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>46%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>71%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>60%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>% of total accelerators units</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>35%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>38%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>45%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>45%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Compute ASIC Total Sales ($B)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$22.4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$45.3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$80.8</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$96.5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>63%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>103%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>78%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>19%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>% of total accelerators sales</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>19%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total AI Accelerators Units (M)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>11.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18.3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25.6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>28.2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>34%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>58%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>40%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Total AI Accelerators Sales ($B)</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$228</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$329</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$447</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>$500</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30%</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>YoY</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>44%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>36%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12%</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr></table>

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 6. NVIDIA MLPerf Results</div>


<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_image_box_461_678_1116_952.jpg" alt="Image" width="53%" /></div>


### 4. Maintain 75% GM% despite memory pricing increases

In a scenario in which NVIDIA faces ~30% memory price hike in Jan-Q, the company can see up to 100bps + potential impact on its GM%, per our analysis. That said, we estimate this scenario to be unlikely given the company's: 1) key partnerships with the memory makers who by all indications would prioritize NVIDIA given its level of orders and strategic positioning; 2) view memory pricing increases already baked in given long-lead times which allows it to (for the most part) see kinks in the supply chain ahead of time; 3) NVIDIA's ability to pass along higher costs to customers given the strong demand of its products led notably by Blackwell; and 4) higher mix of DC sales driven notably by Blackwell, which is accretive to its margins.

---

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 7. Data Center Sales Growth/Mix & GM Trends</div>


<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_468_217_1107_582.jpg" alt="Image" width="52%" /></div>


© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, Company Reports

### 5. CES Recap & Meeting Notes

We attended NVIDIA CEO keynote/financial analyst Q&A and hosted CFO Colette Kress for an investor meeting at CES in January. Overall, we walked away positive on reasoning led agentic and physical AI demand inflection in 2026. We were surprised to see Vera Rubin details at CES and believe Rubin architecture will enhance/surpass NVIDIA's AI platform appeal vs Blackwell given increased architectural complexity with six new chips. The company sees upside to prior $500B AI 2025/26 AI demand from both Blackwell and Rubin. See our detailed note and management notes: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) - CES Meeting Takeaways - Maintain Buy

Supply chain: Management is very confident about its supply chain relationships, both up and down stream. The company is growing at fast scale and rate, and it prepares partners very early and supports them with prepays to build out their capacity.

Vera Rubin: Management clarified that Vera Rubin is in full production now and is still planning on 2H 2026 to be released to the market. Cycle time is about 9 months+. The ramp is expected to be very fast. It's the only computer in the history where every chip is new. Management is confident about maintaining GM in the guided range even with Rubin ramp, and in the longer term it links directly with the value NVIDIA delivers.

Groq acquisition: Groq is very good at extreme latency and NVIDIA's strength is very high throughput. While latency and throughput are opposite to each other, the company is looking for a place to create something unique in the future. Management added that the acquisition will not affect core business but rather open something new. On the topic of M&A more broadly, the company's investment strategy (including R&D) is in every layer of the stack and across the industries, and up and down the supply chain. If there is something the company could do very uniquely, it will do it internally, and for investment outside, management prefers to keep NVIDIA as small as possible and as large as necessary.

---

Anthropic partnership: NVIDIA did not have the resources to invest in Anthropic in the early stage. Anthropic generates very high-quality tokens for enterprise, but generation rate is long, and that is where NVIDIA can be helpful. After Anthropic partnership, NVIDIA is now the only platform in the world that runs every model.

China: The company has plenty of supply for all customers in all countries, particularly in the US, so that supply specific for China will not take away anything from other countries. Regarding H200, the government has received licenses, and they are working on how to process those different licenses. From the company's perspective, they do have demand and just need to make sure to get approvals across different governments.

Frontier model market and the future growth vectors of AI: Current models are probably good enough for general use, but not from a domain-specific perspective, and NVIDIA management expects to see many breakthroughs this year in vertical agentic systems. Each model maker will have to find a specific channel that they can secure, and everything else will be open models. Reasoning is likely the reason that drives 5x growth of token generation, but management expects 50x ahead because of agentic systems with tool use, planning and simulation, together with reasoning.

Context memory storage platform: NVIDIA is the largest networking company currently and management expects to be the largest storage processor company as well. NVIDIA's BlueField with DOCA software is already adopted in CPU and networking, but the storage market is underserved right now. KV cache in AI data center is very heavyweight and cannot be supported by the old storage system, and BlueField-4 can open a new market.

### 6. Valuation

<div style="text-align: center;">Figure 8. NVDA vs AI Semi Peers FY2 P/E</div>


<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_469_907_1102_1366.jpg" alt="Image" width="51%" /></div>


© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research, FactSet

---

### 7. Key NVIDIA GTC Investor Events

Pre-GTC Keynote Breakfast: Monday, March 16 at 8:30 a.m. PT; Location – Signia by Hilton Hotel San Jose

GTC Keynote: Monday, March 16 at 11:00 a.m. PT; Location – SAP Center

Cocktail Reception: March 16 at 5:00 p.m. PT; Location – The Pressroom

Financial Analyst Q&A Breakfast: Tuesday, March 17 at 8:00 a.m. PT; Location – Signia by Hilton Hotel San Jose

Financial Analyst Q&A: Tuesday, March 17 at 9:00 a.m. PT; Location – Signia by Hilton Hotel San Jose

## Companies Mentioned:

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O; US$207.32; 2; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O; US$305.72; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.O; US$198.79; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O; US$325.17; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL.O; US$78.61; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Meta Platforms Inc (META.O; US$639.77; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Microsoft Corp. (MSFT.O; US$401.32; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00) | Oracle Corporation (ORCL.K; US$160.14; 1; 13 Feb 26; 16:00)

---

## NVIDIA Corp

## Company description

Nvidia is a leader in graphics processing units or GPUs. It is engaged in creating graphics and networking chips, which are used in gaming, data centers, and automotive end markets. Nvidia was founded by Jen-Hsun Huang (current CEO) and partners in January 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.

## Investment strategy

We like Buy-rated NVDA on secular AI growth opportunities.

## Valuation

Our price target for NVDA of $270 is based on ~30x P/E on C27E earnings power of $10 discounted back. Our 30x P/E multiple is in-line with 3-5 year average.

## Risks

Downside risks to the attainment of our target price include: 1) competition on gaming could drive the stock lower if Nvidia loses market share; 2) slower-than-expected adoption of new platforms can drive lower data center and gaming sales; 3) lumpiness in auto and data center markets can add volatility to the stock/multiple; and 4) cryptomining impact on gaming sales.

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

## Appendix A-1

## ANALYST CERTIFICATION

The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by “AC” in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple AC analysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than (a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solely with respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts or rating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report for which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global

---

Markets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report.

## IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

## NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

Ratings and Target Price History Fundamental Research

Analyst: Atif Malik

<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_388_280_1040_521.jpg" alt="Image" width="53%" /></div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Rating</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Target Price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1 23-Feb-23 02:35:10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*24.50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>23.66</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2 17-Mar-23 06:01:34</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*30.50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>25.73</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3 23-May-23 08:08:33</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*36.30</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30.69</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4 25-May-23 02:22:12</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*42.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>37.98</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5 17-Jul-23 01:50:06</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*52.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>46.46</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6 24-Aug-23 02:36:33</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*63.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>47.16</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7 18-Oct-23 00:32:40</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*57.50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>42.20</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8 22-Feb-24 02:01:24</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*82.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>78.54</td></tr></table>


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Rating</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Target Price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>20-Mar-24 06:26:15</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*103.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90.37</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>23-May-24 02:55:03</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*126.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>103.80</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>11</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>26-Jun-24 05:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*150.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>126.40</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>12-Nov-24 08:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*170.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>148.29</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>13</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>21-Nov-24 05:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*175.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>146.67</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>05-Feb-25 08:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*163.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>124.83</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10-Apr-25 22:30:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*150.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>107.57</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>16</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>29-May-25 01:37:50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*180.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>139.19</td></tr></table>

 $ ^{*} $Indicates Change


<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Rating</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Target Price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>17 07-Jul-25 02:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*190.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>158.24</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>18 28-Aug-25 01:41:01</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*210.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>180.17</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>19 08-Sep-25 02:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*200.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>168.31</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>20 30-Sep-25 04:04:43</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*210.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>186.58</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>21 10-Nov-25 06:11:57</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*220.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>199.05</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>22 20-Nov-25 02:46:50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>*270.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>180.64</td></tr></table>

Rating/target price changes above reflect Eastern Time

## NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch Research

Analyst: Atif Malik

<div style="text-align: center;"><img src="imgs/img_in_chart_box_388_750_1041_990.jpg" alt="Image" width="53%" /></div>



<table border=1 style='margin: auto; word-wrap: break-word;'><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Action</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected Direction</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Duration</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Action</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected Direction</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Duration</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Date</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Action</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Expected Direction</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Duration</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Closing Price</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>1</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10-Jan-23 08:11:55</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Add CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>46.63</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>5</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>22-Jul-24 00:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Add CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>123.54</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>9</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10-Nov-25 01:11:57</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Add STV</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>2</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10-Jan-24 11:00:14</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Remove CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>54.35</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>6</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>04-Aug-24 10:00:32</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Remove CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>30 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>107.27</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>10-Dec-25 11:07:18</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Remove STV</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>3</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>15-Apr-24 00:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Add CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>86.00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>7</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>21-Nov-24 00:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Add CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>146.67</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr><tr><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>4</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>16-Jun-24 21:00:00</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Remove CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>131.88</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>8</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>14-Jan-25 02:00:50</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Remove CW</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>Upside</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>90 Days</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'>131.76</td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td><td style='text-align: center; word-wrap: break-word;'></td></tr></table>

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CW - Catalyst Watch, STV - Short-Term View

Rating/target price changes above reflect Eastern Time

An employee of Citigroup Global Markets Inc or its affiliates is a Director of Microsoft Corp

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核心结论

花旗在英伟达财报前维持明确看多立场：维持买入评级和270美元目标价，并将FY25/FY26/FY27每股收益小幅上调约1%。其核心判断是，2月25日财报大概率仍偏强，但市场关注点已经转向3月GTC：投资者更关心公司如何更新推理产品路线，以及对2026—2027年AI需求给出多清晰的前瞻。花旗认为，随着B300放量和Rubin在2026年下半年启动，需求前景将看得更远，英伟达股价在2026年下半年有望相对跑赢。
三条支撑逻辑

1）短期业绩偏强，真正催化在GTC

花旗将1月季度收入预测上调至670.74亿美元（市场一致655.82亿美元，公司指引650亿美元±2%），并预计4月季度收入指引约730.13亿美元（市场一致716.03亿美元）。
其上调依据主要来自Blackwell需求强于预期，以及1.6T光模块爬坡加快对B300放量的前瞻信号。数据中心收入方面，花旗预计1月/4月季度环比分别+20%/+10%，高于市场对1月季度的+17%预期。
同时，花旗强调市场已不只看单季兑现，而是在等待GTC对推理路线图（含Groq低时延SRAM IP相关合作）和2026/2027年AI销售前景的进一步说明。
2）“AI过热”担忧存在，但需求与资本开支仍在强化

针对“云厂商AI资本开支过高”的担忧，花旗的反驳是：投入仍在转化为收入、利润、规模效应和平台黏性。
核心证据包括：
- 美国超大云厂商合计云收入在4Q达到817亿美元，环比增速较前季进一步加快；
- 花旗CIO调查显示，企业AI用例进入生产环境比例在4Q25升至24%（环比+3个百分点）；
- 客户案例显示效率改善约20%—30%；
- 美国五大云厂商数据中心资本开支预计2026年同比仍在60%以上增长（花旗口径约+65%）。
花旗还指出，DRAM涨价和CoWoS等供给约束使AI供给仍偏紧，供需缺口可能持续到2026年、并可能延续至2027年。在此背景下，叠加Rubin发布，花旗预计2026年下半年数据中心销售的半年环比增速可加快至34%（上半年为27%）。
3）推理竞争会更分散，但英伟达“整机+软件”优势仍被看好

花旗承认推理市场正在走向多元化：模型规模和场景更细分，ASIC与多种加速器会持续扩张。其模型已反映英伟达份额下行假设，例如商用GPU销售份额由CY25的94%降至CY26约85%，商用GPU在总加速器出货中的占比也将逐步下行。
但花旗仍判断英伟达在系统层面保持领先（芯片、服务器、软件协同），并继续采用MLPerf作为关键可比基准。报告提到GB300 NVL72在最新推理测试中的吞吐表现仍领先，且随着更多外部加速器参与测试，这一对比更具参考意义。
毛利率方面，花旗认为即便存储价格上涨，英伟达仍有望维持中高70%区间：一是供应链协同能力强，二是可将部分成本向下游传导，三是Blackwell驱动的数据中心产品结构对利润率有支撑。
关键数据（统一口径）

说明：以下金额除特别标注外均为“亿美元”；原文$M已按1亿美元=100M折算。毛利率需区分季度non-GAAP与年度模型口径。
1月季度收入：花旗670.74，市场一致655.82，公司指引650±2%。
4月季度收入：花旗730.13，市场一致716.03。
非GAAP EPS：1月季度花旗1.54美元（一致1.52）；4月季度花旗与一致均为1.67美元。
非GAAP毛利率：1月与4月季度花旗均按约75%建模。
评级与估值：股价（2月13日）182.81美元；目标价270美元；隐含股价回报约47.7%；维持买入。
目标价方法：基于CY27E EPS给予约30倍PE。
GPU出货（花旗模型）：FY26约710万片（+27%），FY27约1020万片（+44%）；FY26 Blackwell约620万片。
AI GPU销售预测：FY26约1600亿（+55%），FY27约2690亿（+68%）。
AI GPU在数据中心收入占比：FY26—FY27平均约高80%至90%。
美国五大云厂商数据中心资本开支：2024约2231.83，2025约3984.80，2026E约6580.86（同比约+65%）。
AI加速器市场总销售（花旗）：2025E约2280亿，2028E约5000亿，CAGR约30%。
年度财务节选：营收2026E/2027E/2028E约2148.85/3590.20/4715.31；Core EPS约4.70/8.17/10.16美元。
毛利率口径提示：报告正文多次强调季度non-GAAP约75%；年度模型表中2026E毛利率为71.1%、2027E回升至75.1%，反映口径与全年节奏假设差异。
风险与后续验证点

短期验证：2月25日财报对收入与毛利率的兑现程度。
中期验证：3月GTC对推理路线、Rubin节奏及2026/2027需求展望的清晰度。
运营变量：存储器与其他组件涨价能否继续有效传导；高增速下供应链执行是否稳定。
竞争变量：推理侧多架构并存加快后，英伟达系统级优势能否持续转化为份额与盈利。
合作与战略变量：Anthropic/OpenAI合作进展，以及Groq相关合作对产品路线的实际影响。
区域与合规变量：中国市场相关产品许可与交付节奏。
公司披露口径：部分指标在季度/年度、GAAP/non-GAAP之间存在定义差异，需结合公司正式披露口径解读。
摘要历史 (3)

StreamSparkAI
