2026-02-23 | Goldman Sachs Equity Research | 工业富联:AI服务器产能扩张与利润率提升展现领先地位

工业富联AI服务器扩产提速 利润率上行巩固全球龙头地位

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AI服务器 工业富联 CSP客户 GPU/ASIC架构 液冷服务器 800G交换机 CPO交换机 自动化制造 毛利率提升 估值重估 买入评级 +7

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# Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SS): Chairman Fireside Chat: AI servers in expansion; leading position with enhancing margins; Buy

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We hosted FII's Chairman for a fireside chat on Jan 14 in Hong Kong. Management remains positive on AI servers ramp-up with enhancing profitability via improving yield rate, efficiency, and focusing on CSPs (cloud services providers) clients. As we highlighted in our Hon Hai deep-dive report, we are positive on Hon Hai / FII on (1) strong R&D, global production and power of scale to secure the leading market position in AI servers, (2) smartphone form factor changes to drive end demand, Hon Hai / FII's allocation, and dollar content, and (3) Hon Hai / FII to enjoy valuation re-rating on the back of enhancing fundamentals in coming years. Maintain Buy on both Hon Hai (on CL, most recent close: NT$227.00) and FII.

## Key takeaways

1. Positive tone on future growth: Management remains positive on their future growth, highlighting the company is in a fast growth industry (AI servers) and need to run very fast. Overall, AI servers have become the company's major revenues stream to drive the growth, with GPU-powered AI servers racks as the main driver, and CSPs are their major servers customers. Management continues to expect both total revenues and profits to see significant YoY growth in 1Q26 driven by AI servers despite smartphone mechanical parts entering slow season. The AI servers ramp up in 1Q26 is mainly for CSPs customers, and across various architectures (e.g. rack-level / baseboard-based; GPU / ASIC). The following quarters should enjoy new models contribution, including Rubin, and AMD's ever-first AI servers racks. Management highlights Rubin architecture is similar to GB300 but in pure liquid cooled without cables and fans, driving level of automation of production. On switch, management remains positive on 800G switch, and stated the CPO switch is ready to move to production any time.

2. Leading market position: Management highlights the fast migration in AI servers leading the company's continuous capacity expansion, finding more space and power to run the production and testing. Management highlights the AI infrastructure is not only AI servers, but a total solution across compute, storage, accelerators, and networking, in which FII offers or has partners to join the growth together. As a global leading ODM in AI servers, management remains positive on their strong R&D on design (product design based on GPU/ASIC suppliers' development kit, production process design), strong logistics and supply chain management, last mile capability (given the AI servers are too heavy to ship and need to be made in local markets), automated production and global presence.

Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Allen Chang

+852-2978-2930 |

allen.k.chang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

3. Profitability: Management remains positive on margins enhancement on AI servers through improving yield rate and efficiency: production getting more smooth, turnaround time getting shorter, and less re-working. Automated production could also drive the yield rate and efficiency, alongside the rising scale, as FII will continue to add new customers and increase allocation in existing customers to enlarge the scale. The company also focuses on better margin projects, continuing toward leading CSP clients, who tend to offer better margins vs. brand customers given CSPs offer cloud services, which are enjoying better margins. Besides this, FII will also manage their exposure to competitive markets, to avoid pricing competition. The company's revenues increased by 21% QoQ in 3Q25 driven by growing AI servers, while GM enhanced from 6.5% in 2Q25 to 7.0% in 3Q25, reflecting its improving AI servers profitability.

## Price Target Risks and Methodology - Foxconn Industrial Internet

Our 12m target price of Rmb92.9 is based on 30.3x 2026E P/E. Our target P/E is set in line with peers' regression of P/E and forward year fundamentals (NI YoY and OPM).

Key downside risks: (1) Worse-than-expected demand and profit from the AI server business; (2) Worse-than-expected iPhone component business expansion due to strong competition; (3) Slower-than-expected capacity ramp-up in new factories; (4) Lower-than-expected iPhone shipment given FII provides components for iPhone.

<table><tr><td>601138.SS</td><td>12m Price Target: Rmb92.90</td><td>Price: Rmb54.75</td><td>Upside: 69.7%</td></tr></table>

## Buy

Market cap: Rmb1.1tr / $157.4bn

Enterprise value:

Rmb1.1tr / $155.7bn

3m ADTV: Rmb10.8bn / $1.5bn

China

Greater China Technology

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No

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GS Forecast

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<table border="1"><tr><td></td><td>12/24</td><td>12/25E</td><td>12/26E</td><td>12/27E</td></tr><tr><td>Revenue (Rmb mn)</td><td>609,135.4</td><td>948,844.4</td><td>1,583,591.4</td><td>2,235,267.7</td></tr><tr><td>EBITDA (Rmb mn)</td><td>31,887.1</td><td>46,027.8</td><td>77,714.0</td><td>95,745.4</td></tr><tr><td>EPS (Rmb)</td><td>1.17</td><td>1.69</td><td>3.07</td><td>3.87</td></tr><tr><td>P/E (X)</td><td>19.0</td><td>32.3</td><td>17.8</td><td>14.1</td></tr><tr><td>P/B (X)</td><td>2.9</td><td>6.5</td><td>5.6</td><td>4.7</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend yield(%)</td><td>2.9</td><td>1.7</td><td>3.1</td><td>3.9</td></tr><tr><td>N debt/EBITDA(ex lease,X)</td><td>(1.0)</td><td>(0.3)</td><td>(0.1)</td><td>0.2</td></tr><tr><td>CROCI(%)</td><td>11.1</td><td>22.2</td><td>32.3</td><td>33.7</td></tr><tr><td>FCF yield(%)</td><td>2.8</td><td>(0.0)</td><td>2.5</td><td>1.2</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>9/25</td><td>12/25E</td><td>3/26E</td><td>6/26E</td></tr><tr><td>EPS(Rmb)</td><td>0.52</td><td>0.56</td><td>0.58</td><td>0.65</td></tr></table>

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 13 Feb 2026 close.

最新摘要 (Detailed Summary)

生成于 2026-02-23 11:25

投资结论(结论先行)

高盛在与工业富联董事长的炉边交流后,维持工业富联(601138.SS)与鸿海的买入评级。对工业富联给出12个月目标价Rmb92.90(对应现价Rmb54.75,隐含上行69.7%),估值基于2026E 30.3x P/E
核心判断是:AI服务器扩产仍在加速、盈利能力进入改善通道、公司在全球AI服务器ODM环节的综合能力巩固领先地位。

单一事实源(核心证据)

  • 会议信息:高盛于1月14日在香港与工业富联董事长交流(按全文语境对应2026年)。
  • 增长指引:管理层预计1Q26收入与利润同比显著增长,主要由AI服务器驱动,尽管手机结构件处于季节性淡季。
  • 需求与产品:1Q26放量以CSP客户为主,覆盖rack-level/baseboard及GPU/ASIC架构;后续季度有Rubin及AMD首款AI服务器机柜贡献。
  • 网络产品:管理层继续看好800G交换机,并表示CPO交换机可随时进入量产。
  • 盈利验证:3Q25收入环比+21%;毛利率由2Q25的6.5%提升至3Q25的7.0%
  • 关键原文:
    “Management remains positive on AI servers ramp-up with enhancing profitability via improving yield rate, efficiency, and focusing on CSPs clients.”

逻辑拆解(观点与判断)

增长逻辑

管理层认为AI服务器已成为公司主要收入驱动,且当前爬坡具备“多客户+多架构”特征,短期增长延续性较强。

竞争力逻辑

公司优势不只在服务器组装,而在“设计—制造—交付”全链条:基于GPU/ASIC平台的研发能力、自动化生产、全球供应链管理及本地化最后一公里交付;并持续扩充生产与测试所需空间、电力资源以支撑扩产。

利润率逻辑

利润率改善来自三条主线:
1) 运营效率提升(良率、周转、返工);
2) 自动化与规模效应增强;
3) 客户与项目结构优化(偏向利润更优的CSP项目,并控制高竞争市场暴露)。
上述趋势已在3Q25毛利率改善中初步体现。

估值与预测摘录

  • 目标价:Rmb92.90(12个月)
  • 估值锚:2026E P/E 30.3x
  • 高盛预测(摘录):
    • 收入(Rmb mn):2025E 948,844.4;2026E 1,583,591.4;2027E 2,235,267.7
    • EPS(Rmb):2025E 1.69;2026E 3.07;2027E 3.87

主要下行风险

  1. AI服务器需求或盈利低于预期。
  2. iPhone零部件业务扩张不及预期(竞争加剧)。
  3. 新工厂产能爬坡慢于预期。
  4. iPhone出货低于预期。