2025-02-28 | a16z Podcast | OpenClaw, Claude Code, and the Future of Software with Peter Yang
个人AI代理重塑软件交互模式,从复杂应用到一人公司的未来展望
转录
speaker 1 [00:00:00-00:00:05]: EnINTERES THAT SOFTARE eat THE WORLD, I FE LIKE COING W eatAT ALL knowledge WORK, RIGHT? AND WE'RE KIND OF GOING TO THAT directionTION ALREAD. speaker 2 [00:00:06-00:00:16]: THE WHOLE AGENT STACK IS EMERING. YEAH, ID, PAYMENTS, MARKET, EVEN CLI VERSUS MCP LIKE YEAH, ALL OF THESE ARE really NEW THINGS. AND I THINK A LOT OF THE OLD PLAYbookOOK goesES AWAY. speaker 1 [00:00:17-00:00:39]: YEAH, IT' A WHO whole NEW WORLD. I HOPE MORE COMPIES WILL stayAY SMALL. AND I THINK THE foundersUNDERS OF THISERATION RE realizeZE THAT, LIKE THEY W to STAY AS SMALL AS POS possibleBLE. YEAH. And instead of having like a ten percent product product team, you have like a two or three person product team, and just have a bunch of agents help help you. Yeah, someone tweeted that like the the job market is so bad that I can only pursue my dreams now or something like. So like it it like, you know, it's like, yeah, so maybe you lost your job, but like now you have to do your own thing. speaker 2 [00:00:39-00:01:37]: Yeah 100 percent and have a shot at actually achieving it. yeah know yeah yeah. All right, welcome everyone. I've got my friend peter yang here. Peter welcome. Yeah, could it be here? It's good to see you again. Yeah, it's great to see you peter and i worked together at credit karma for a brief stint and then we went our separate ways and you know, i rediscovered peter from his prolific posts on x and your youtube and yeah, you know, you've got a little bit of a clark kent superman thing going because you still got a day job, right? That's right. So with a job. Yes. Yeah. Can you show where? Yeah, what a roblox as a pm? Amazing Roblox and Jason Portfolio Company, yes, one of my favorites. Well, incredible man! Let's get right into it. Maybe I'll start with a softball fun question, and then you know we're going to talk about everything in the Claw ecosystem. We're going to talk about coding agents. We're talking about a little bit about maybe what students should study, advice, and some of the things that you've talked about online. Yeah, sure. Maybe to start, what is the name of your... Oh, how many claws do you have? speaker 1 [00:01:38-00:01:43]: And tell me their names. I only have one. I call her Zoe. Zoe, but I have like multiple conversations going with. speaker 2 [00:01:43-00:01:45]: Okay, yeah, and why Zoe. speaker 1 [00:01:46-00:01:53]: I... I have two girls, and I was going to call my younger one Zoe, and I did not, So I'm gonna call I call my open call Zoe instead. speaker 2 [00:01:53-00:02:04]: I see, I see. yes yeah, this is your fallback plan. Yeah, Peter, tell me a little bit about you know, open claw, how you discovered it, how you're using it today, and what you think the implications are. speaker 1 [00:02:04-00:03:03]: Yeah, I was lucky to interview Peter Steinbergerger before you became super famous, and the whole thing blew up. And then rather i knew him, i like set up the thing, it took forever to set up a super janky. And yeah, it does a lot of things for me. It like pulls analytics for me across youtube and like member create banking account. It can update google documents for me. It can be a little websites for me, but if i was honest with you, dude, like i mostly just talked to it through voice and get voice replies. And like every other day i asked you can like a pep talk or like, you know, give me like, like look through all your memory and like, give me some like deep insights that i don't know about. Okay. And like it gave me like, like i remember i was on a walk and gave me like a three-minute pep talk. That was like really amazing, really amazing. Like it's something about like like oh you're like pointing me about your creator business and blah blah and like your job. But like just remember that your kids. You know, S four are going to grow up very soon, and they' going to want to spend time with you. WOW, so like you should really optimizeMIE for, you know them instead. speaker 2 [00:03:03-00:03:11]: YEAH, yeah, that'sS really cool, and I mean very cool, but also something that all theANG language models could have done prior. YEAH, SO what's the difference between this and in a use case like that? speaker 1 [00:03:11-00:03:31]: Yeah, itS very good question. So I don''t know, because I think installALL on TED Telegram, it just feels like more personal than using like CL or chat GPPT, and just feels like somethingOM that can like text IN bed. It's probably not very healthy, but like i text to it in bed, i talk to it during my commute and it feels like it feels more like a personal like actual human. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:03:31-00:03:49]: yeah. So so how much for you is open claw about the kind of interface like pushing it to messaging and you know, maybe helping to trick our brain into feeling like, hey, this is a person or a person-esque thing versus all the other components of the stack, the self-modification, the skills directory. Yeah, every all the all the rest. speaker 1 [00:03:49-00:04:21]: I think it's probably like 70, 80 percent just like the personable part of it part of it because i mostly just talk to it and like, you know, through voice. But i also think like is something for first of all, it is pretty janky. It has to forget things a lot. Yeah, to keep reminding it. But like any kind of zany idea that i have, i just have to talk to it and it can probably just do like like it's kind of like like the other day, i was doing voice replies with it. I was like, hey, can we just have a live phone call instead? And then it's like, okay, you gotta connect twitter video. I gotta do all the stuff and okay fine. I went off and did it. Yeah, and then we had a phone call. speaker 2 [00:04:22-00:04:24]: called my phone. really, you have that set up, I dying to set that up. speaker 1 [00:04:24-00:04:32]: Okay. It's not very good, though. like the latency is bad but like the fact that I was able to get it going is like pretty impressive. So it's kind of like any kind of crazy idea I have. speaker 2 [00:04:32-00:04:41]: it can kind of kind of do. And then in practice, how are you doing that? Are you asking it to write a skill on the fly? Are you discovering a skill? How much of the code G are you actually using? speaker 1 [00:04:42-00:05:03]: I mean, I talked to in like a super casual way with like just like a friend. So like, hey, hey, you know, hey Zoee K K, like you have a phone call. It like, okay, you got do that. I said okay, fine, I'll open my computer, I'll do all this stuff, and then it's like give me a call and it will troubleshoot a little bit, and then it works. So like with cloud, I have like very fancy prompts, like very long prompts, but with open cloud, I just kind of text it. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:05:03-00:05:24]: it is really interesting. So we sort of touched on a couple things actually. So one, there's mobile messaging, there's the memory system, there's the sort of code generation component. How much do you think the memory system like is it innovative because it's file-based? You said that it forgets things but so do language models. Like do you think the memory system is well done? Does it hold it back or does it enable it? speaker 1 [00:05:25-00:06:10]: I think the default memory system is actually not that great. Okay. Like the way i understand it works is like just like a memory to md text file. Yes. And every day per day, right? And there they updates and it tends to forget things a lot. Yeah. So i actually installed this like. Three layer memories. Some that i don't fully understand, but it has like fancy. It has like toby's qmd search tool. Okay, so i saw that and then install like a two gigabyte thing and then i got a little bit better. Okay, but i said the reminder like i have this i put it into the agents that md like hey like before you answer any question for me, like go through all your memory and like check everything. Yeah. And they also tends to forget that it can do stuff. Like, you know, right, like, can you update my Google talk. It's like, oh, I can't do that. Yeah, yes, you can. it it'sS in your, it's in your file. Yes, so you have to remind it. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:06:10-00:06:21]: yeah, really interesting. Well, well, maybe let's get into a little bit of the controversy. Um, you know, you'd said that appsel die claw's going to be everything and everywhere. I mean, talk us through that that point of view. speaker 1 [00:06:21-00:07:00]: Yeah, well, first of all, I I tweet all all kinds of random crap like not super well thought out. We take it all as fact. Yeah, yes, Um, but I do think like um. Like ever since i set up all these apps like mercury mcp and all this kind of crap on my open call. Like i don't actually open those apps much anymore, you know, but i do agree with you. Like i i think the ones that are gonna die first or like maybe get less usage first is like apps that you're just opening to try to complete a task. Like you actually try to do something, you know, like apps that you only need to like get entertainment. Can probably survive a little bit longer, but like apps not only should complete a task, like it's just way easier to text my agent to do it for me. Yeah, it's like you have a really good admin to do stuff for it for you. speaker 2 [00:07:01-00:07:06]: Yeah, yeah. And so how much are you finding? Has this like reduced your smartphone usage outside of modulo open call? speaker 1 [00:07:06-00:07:14]: Yeah, no, because like I'm like a Twitter addict, so I use my smartphone way, way too much. But yeah, in terms of using those apps, has definitely reduced it. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:07:15-00:07:19]: yeah, because you're not gonna ask Zoe like, hey, read my apps for me and tell me. speaker 1 [00:07:19-00:07:27]: I mean it it sounds like a morning briefing like the top two tweets and stuff that like trends but yeah i i still open x. I look through it. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:07:27-00:07:59]: Yeah. You know it's interesting because i've always had this theory that people open apps on their phone because they want to feel a feeling. Yeah. You know and i think of course there's some like functional set of needs which is why you open calendar or something. But also think that you know what's up is you want to feel connected and slack as you want to feel productive and of course you know tiktok is you want to feel entertained. So i do wonder with just one agent, how do you sort of do the context switching of like, when are you flirting? When are you getting shit done? I mean, there, you know, in a sense app gives you a nice, it sort of gives you a nice division of the intense. Yeah, that's you don't get with zoe. speaker 1 [00:07:59-00:08:14]: That's the plan, but i do have multiple channels set up a zoe in telegram. Like one is just to random voice replies and otherwise we're actually working on our project together and then i want to have like a public channel where like i'm giving that demos. I don't want to review a private information. Yes. So i like multiple channels. speaker 2 [00:08:14-00:08:18]: And is that implemented as sub agents or no? speaker 1 [00:08:18-00:08:29]: Is this some janky setup I found online, like you can set up multiple Telegram channels, and then I'm not sure if it actually remembers across contexts across the channels, but like you can have separate conversations at least. Got it. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:08:29-00:08:34]: And how, how, you know, transparent are you with your agent? Like does it, does it see your personal email? speaker 1 [00:08:35-00:08:51]: Or I'm like super transparent. Well, I did buy the Mac Mini and set up its own email. Okay. And but I gave it like read access to my email and like calendar. And I also gave it like write access to some docs, yeah, but it can like screw my entire drive or something, you know? speaker 2 [00:08:51-00:08:59]: So how do you imagine OpenCL, which it's sort of an architecture and a primitive, yeah, how does it get productized packaged for the world? speaker 1 [00:08:59-00:09:13]: I mean, I think that's what Peter Simeonberg is working out at OpenAI, right? It's probably going to build something to ChatGPT, which everyone uses, so that ChatGPT can actually get stuff done for you and like maybe feels more human. Yeah, dude, like let me rant about ChatGPT. speaker 2 [00:09:13-00:09:14]: Please, yeah. speaker 1 [00:09:15-00:09:32]: for some reason, for some reason they trained the model so that like at the end of every conversation is always like if you want, I can also do X and Y. Yeah, and dude, I got so annoyed by it that that kind of churn from ChatGPT really. Yeah, so, so it probably increases their metrics, but like it's just like super annoying. It's like, why not just do it in the first place? speaker 2 [00:09:32-00:09:33]: Are you a cloud guy now? speaker 1 [00:09:33-00:09:38]: Yeah, I'm a cloud guy now, but but I do use Codex to code. speaker 2 [00:09:38-00:09:41]: Yeah, you like codex, you prefer to call code or use. speaker 1 [00:09:41-00:09:45]: both codex. When I want to try to do something real and cloud code, one's just like vibing. speaker 2 [00:09:47-00:10:09]: you know? Well, it's interesting. I think they live at different points, and you know there's a sort of space of trade-offs. Whereas I find cloud code in Opus 46, it's a little more chatty, it makes more assumptions, but it can be more pleasant for a synchronous experience. Whereas codex, it really thinks hard and it's more often accurate. But sometimes it's sort of like being in a conversation where the other person pauses for like three minutes to think. speaker 1 [00:10:09-00:10:21]: Yeah, you don't have to flow flow state, right? It's hard to get flow like clockwork, dude. I tell you the other day, clockwork almost like a like a slot machine because it's like it's like has different things each time. It's like oh one hundred percent like slot machine. speaker 2 [00:10:21-00:10:45]: Look, I do think that if you think remember what we were talking about in the old social networking era, it was variable scheduled rewards, right? That was the whole magic of it. you know once in a while it's like boring boring oh my god this is so exciting and yeah the coding agents have the exact same property also the time is variable so sometimes you get something in a second sometimes it takes five minutes so yeah up to a certain point actually think that both of those things give it that casino like feeling. speaker 1 [00:10:45-00:11:05]: yeah and and the other thing that's very different about the product strategy or maybe it's just the way it works is like coding is kind of like self explanatory yeah and clock hole you have all this crazy shit you have like hooks and like skills and like you have to you have to plugins like if you if you're not following yeah if you're not following x you have no idea how to customize this thing. Yeah, but once you customize it, you kind of feel like it's part of you. So it's kind of hard to turn. speaker 2 [00:11:05-00:11:52]: It's interesting with. So i've customized mine because also i read the long thing that was put up. Yeah. But i will say that i think that, you know, cloud code, a lot of the reasons that i enjoy it are just harness features, you know, like, for example, if you cut an image, you have to paste it into a file before and then paste that file into codex. Okay, you can't just take a subset of the screen screenshot it and then paste it directly into codex the same way you can with cloud code already. Okay, okay. So just like little things like that, you know, cloud code added voice. It's a little bit janky right now, but it's going in the right direction. So they've just got a bunch of quality of life things. Yeah. You know, CLude codes speaks to CL in Chrome, okay, and CodeDEx doesn't speak to ATlas. got it. So I think these are all things that Open AI will fix. Yeah, I think CodeDEx is actually a much better model, UM, but they don't exist today. speaker 1 [00:11:52-00:11:56]: Yeah, yeah, they need to fix it. I mean, they're're going to go ALL ALL on cod CodeDEx, I'm sure. yeah. speaker 2 [00:11:57-00:12:02]: Talk to me about coding agents, like what's your general view? you know, do you think it's the endND of SAS? Do you think these are just a toy. speaker 1 [00:12:03-00:12:29]: Uh,Well, first of all, I'm'm I'm like not an engineersINE, I'mM like a nov, but I do hear that, um, like I was talking some folks the other day, and like like an AI native star startup, and they're basically trying to they have a bunchCH of vibe coders. and all of vibe COers are just trying to build internal tools that REP their SaaS that they're paying for really? so it'sS an actualU company it doing this. it's actualU company.. It an AI native company. it's like one of the vibe coding companies like one the more popular. speaker 2 [00:12:29-00:12:33]: Interesting. Yeah, it's interesting. Oh, i see. So they're actually an appgen company. speaker 1 [00:12:33-00:12:39]: their appgen company and they're paying for a bunch of sas like and they want to get rid of the payment. They want to just buy coding tools by using. speaker 2 [00:12:40-00:12:53]: Okay, so in that case that they might be the most extreme form of adobe because their own product is appgen. So they should use appgen for everything. Yeah, i guess is your prediction though that the average company will turn off of slack or deal or you know. speaker 1 [00:12:54-00:13:13]: Um, i don't think i i feel like slack has a lot of legs because slack can also be the place where you talk to the agents themselves. But some of the other ones, they are pretty complicated, you know? So like it's kind of be hard to buy code like that stuff. But i feel like if you have like an app like maybe calendly or like something more simple. Yeah. Then why why should you? Why should i pay for it? speaker 2 [00:13:13-00:13:29]: Like i just why should i pay for it though? The camera point is that it's not that expensive and do you really want to maintain your own? Calendly thing, yeah, you know, versus pay 20 bucks a month. It always gets updated, it's always up, yeah, because there's just like a fixed amount of capacity that anyone in the organization is going to have for all this stuff. speaker 1 [00:13:29-00:13:34]: Yeah, that's true. Unless you hire like dedicated VPCs like the startup does, yeah, VPC stuff. speaker 2 [00:13:34-00:13:38]: But then it's like, you know, the cost benefit versus just paying for. speaker 1 [00:13:39-00:14:04]: It's interesting thing about like for example, like a lot of people are tweeting about Figma recently. Yeah, like like the stock is down, like you know, are you gonna survive? Yeah. And I feel like the jury is out there. Like it's kind of hard to say. Yeah. I feel like all designers are still on Figma, but like as a designer, you kind of need to learn how to vibe code, otherwise you're gonna like if you want to know how to do Figma, yeah, like you're probably gonna be like out of date. In a couple of years. speaker 2 [00:14:05-00:14:47]: my counterpoint to that is that I think that I've thought a lot about the sort of thinking tools versus making tools, right? The IDE was historically a making tool. It's a place for execution. I think it's migrating away from that. And now with execution going to zero, I think these sort of like multi-agent next-gen IDEs, a lot of them are about trying things. And using the trial and error as a way to inform your thinking. Yeah, like a lot of times i'll just build a feature in a really naive way and i'll hammer the coding agent until it works. Then i'll say, hey, write all the things that you would have done differently and i'll go back to the initial point and redo it. So i wonder if and i think figma actually does both. I think it's a place for design execution, but it's also an important place for design thinking. Yeah, i think that's their opportunity to be highly relevant in the new stack. speaker 1 [00:14:48-00:15:06]: Yeah, i totally agree. I totally agree. Um, but i i think a16z has like you guys investing pencil or something pencil. Dot death feed run dead. Yeah. Yes, we run it and like, um, yeah, think money is to like level up this ai tooling because, you know, like watching this agents clary with you and like do stuff. It's like very. speaker 2 [00:15:07-00:15:16]: very interesting. I know it's top of mind for them. Yeah. What do you think are the most under discussed capabilities of coding agents? You know, what's underhyped and maybe what's overhyped as well. speaker 1 [00:15:16-00:16:10]: This is probably not underhyped, but you know, like you know, I feel like and interesting that software will eat the world. I feel like coding will eat all knowledge work right? And we're kind of going that direction already. Like I think Loveable recently launched like today, yeah, but they can support everything and replicate can make decks. Yeah, so so yeah, so I and I feel like everyone's chasing this like Anthropic is probably in the lead. Yeah, but like you know, like I don't want to use PowerPoint anymore. I don't want to like write a like I hate writing Google Docs, dude. Like that was my entire life. Yeah, yeah, so so like but but but the other day I was writing my blog post and instead of just like typing out, I was like hey, let's let me just use clock code and like you know, let me give you a bunch of feedback and you you write it for. Um, it did the first 80%, the last 20% I said was Malay, like going there like tweak, tweak, tweak stuff. Yeah, but like that, that's the way I work now. I never start from zero, like I always get the first 80% from AI, right? speaker 2 [00:16:11-00:16:47]: Yeah, yeah, it's interesting. You know, if you look at there, there are also like historical analogs of this. I think Satya said this, which is that Excel is the most powerful or most popular programming language in the world. Yeah. and that it's sort of a programming language that millions and millions, i mean, a hundred billion plus people must know, maybe even more. um, and yet we don't think of it that way. it's a way to sort of describe and solve problems. yeah. and i think coding agents are going to be that, of course, times a thousand. yeah. or even things that feel subjective, like writing google docs, can be represented in the coding domain in such a way that it's more satisfying, more productive, more high leverage to use agents to do it. speaker 1 [00:16:47-00:16:59]: yeah, because excel was like popular because it's super approachable, right? yes. and like coding is just, the code is just so ghastly. it's like, ah, shut away, just talking to some. Some agent again to do stuff. So yeah, yeah, exactly. It's gonna be huge. speaker 2 [00:16:59-00:17:08]: Yeah, what do you think the future company looks like? Is just a bunch of agents with a ceo is the ceo an agent. I mean, what is the role for people in a company in the future? speaker 1 [00:17:08-00:17:22]: Okay, well, i have some hot takes. So we both worked at some companies together and let me give you a hot take, man. Maybe cut this out. But like, i feel like as a company gets bigger, it tends to get shit. It tends to become like a shitty studio place to work, dude. Yeah, like because there's like a lot of people you have to align. speaker 2 [00:17:23-00:17:23]: That's axiomatic. speaker 1 [00:17:24-00:17:54]: Yeah, right. And i remember, you know, maybe should mention this company. I remember our company. obviously to have what is like OK OK meetings, and like I recently a room for like three hours, talking about OKR. I'm just like, dude, there is like wasting my life. Yeah. So what what I'm going with this is I hope more companies will stay small. and I think the founders of this generation realize that, like they wantANT to stay as small as possible. Yeah. And instead of having like a 10 person PRO product team, you have like a two or three person product team, and you just have a bunch of agents help help you. Yeah, you know? because I think it's way easier to cross launch your line of the agents than with humans. speaker 2 [00:17:54-00:18:48]: Yeah, well actually in a fun in a sense, the agents actually because it takes the emotion out of it too. Like you can imagine if i sent my agent, you sent your agent to go negotiate something. Yeah. And they came out with some conclusion. It's not emotional. It's not for either of us, you know, it's very objective. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, it's funny. You know, one of the things that we've been talking a bunch about is like. What is the pro case for AI at work in terms of employee experience? And I think it's what you're describing, right? Like how do you increase the NPS of work? Yeah, so if we like go all the way back or even broadly the NPS of the human experience, right? Like think of the NPS of the day-to-day human in 10000 BC when it's like just don't get eaten by the lion, and that's like a good day, right? Or you know maybe 100 years ago, it's like okay, don't get killed at the factory, crushed by the steam press or whatever else. And now a lot of it is like. Just don't get sucked into some high emotion, you know, sort of negotiation with another vps subordinate. speaker 1 [00:18:49-00:18:51]: Yeah, like a 50 message slack thread going back and forth. speaker 2 [00:18:51-00:19:07]: Yeah, which exactly. And then eventually everyone's like, i don't want to tell the ceo and eventually it goes there and it's just terrible. So maybe the future of this is that a lot of that emotional subjective work gets handled. Yeah. And we're sort of guiding the process but not in the middle of it in a way that just doesn't suit us as humans. speaker 1 [00:19:07-00:19:15]: Yeah. Like, you know, i i leave that double life as a pm creator and like i feel like all the pms actually just want to create. Products. This is my career pros and well. speaker 2 [00:19:15-00:19:47]: that's why we all got into it, you know, it's so interesting. I mean, nicole talks about all the time but like every pm's sort of view of the ideal pm is the innovator, you know, like i came up with the new thing and it's like that sort of like had the big insight and unlock the product. Yeah, i think the black pill is i don't think most pms know how to do that. In fact, many companies have zero people that know how to do that at all in any function. Yeah. So nonetheless, I think PMs aspire to be able to do that, and they should either do it and either be successful or maybe not successful and move to a different function. speaker 1 [00:19:47-00:20:02]: I also feel like my hot take is like basically all the PMs I know are trying to vibe code at nights and weekends. And I feel like my hot take is that like I feel like if you're actually unemployed, like you probably have more time to be a builder and like to be innovative. You can actually like play all this stuff and like learn all this stuff. speaker 2 [00:20:02-00:20:22]: A of PMms are try, or maybe be an engineer in the team, you know? yeah, I used to be an engineer, and I got sort of, I't know if I got forced to be a PM, maybe I also perceived PM as like being a little more high status yeah, yeah, when I joined Google, but then eventually you come around on the other side, you're like, this is terrible, you know, like, you don't never really get the satisfaction yeah, of actually shipping other than like, you know, once a quarter when you ship. speaker 1 [00:20:22-00:20:35]: I mean, the PM skills of like talking to users and like trying to figure out what to be like with a problem to solve, like those are very I important still. yeah, and like, but yeah, you got to wear multiple H do. You got you got to likePU thing yourself type it and get some FE, and then maybe. Brand engineer law. speaker 2 [00:20:36-00:20:51]: how much do you think that everyone has to go as fast as you know? I mean like Gary was talking about stimies and skipping sleep,and Gary ten like you know G stack。 I mean is hey,I mean is that like the default way that we all need to work? Or do you think there's a trade off for thoughtfulness? speaker 1 [00:20:52-00:21:07]: I think it's very easy now with all these AI tools just going like 10 different directions at once。 Yeah,so sometimes you do have to slow down and try to figure out。 Where you want to go? Yeah, but i also believe that like the traditional process where like you annual planning and like doing this bullshit. Like i just feel like that doesn't really work anymore. speaker 2 [00:21:08-00:21:58]: you know? Yeah, yeah. And for the record, i love the area and i like think the world of him. Yeah. So here's my view on that because i thought a bunch about the, you know, who asked me this the other day, hit him, who's really impressed. Yeah. So you're talking about this like sort of productivity porn, and everybody's got 20 agents running and 20 monitors and blah blah blah, and like I do think when it comes to. Um, fully realizing a local, a sort of local maxima, you should go very fast, right? So let's say you kind of hill climb, you get to the bottom of the new local maxima. I think with agents, you should be able to get to the top of that hill extremely fast, right? You have a new insight, build everything around the insight so it's fully expressed. But then I think to get to the next, you know, the next sort of hill, you've got to probably slow down and almost stop and go touch grass and do whatever. Yeah. So i think there's this combination of like fast and slow, that's probably the future way. speaker 1 [00:21:58-00:22:03]: Yeah, i think so. And like you gotta go that random walk, trying to find her mark if it which takes a while, right? speaker 2 [00:22:03-00:22:11]: So this is not like, yeah. So we were talking before we started recording about some of the business in a box platforms. Have you looked at them? Do you have a view? speaker 1 [00:22:12-00:22:18]: I've looked at post yet that we talked about like i don't know the guy like intentionally made it the opposite of ai slop or is it? speaker 2 [00:22:19-00:22:22]: Yes, i think so. Yes, yes, yes. That's funny. speaker 1 [00:22:22-00:22:37]: Well, i mean, i have a pretty big public presence, right? So i connect all my shit to it and then i mean, it's it's definitely gives a good peek into what's possible. But like right now, it's probably still pretty like early stage. Like it's time to run like facebook ads. Yeah, why am i running facebook ads? speaker 2 [00:22:37-00:23:15]: Yeah, you know, so yeah, i mean, i'm very excited about it because it does feel like it's a path for more people to build companies. Yeah, even if they're single one person companies, you know, like if you think about how competitive it is to build a billion dollar business, like the markets that supported the number of people trying versus 100 million versus 10 million versus. one hundred thousand dollars tam. yeah, like maybe there are these pockets all over the country, all over the world, where there are opportunities for hundred thousand dollars tam products. Yeah, And that would change somebody's life. Now that's not an enterprise ventureback company, but that's okay. Yeah. So I hope that whole thesis works, because I do think it's a way to get more people to participate. speaker 1 [00:23:15-00:23:25]: you know. Yeah, that that that's my plan for my kids dude. Like I want them to just build like push out businesses in high high school. Yeah, and they can skip the whole college and like corporate life. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:23:25-00:23:51]: Well, dude, i think this is like, you know, for 10 years, there's this moral panic about the kids want to be youtubers. Yeah, you know, you're a youtuber. Yeah, you know, you know, in the vein of mr. Beast and and i think like pro case for that actually is that the kids wanted to be entrepreneurs or have agency and the only channel for people if they weren't programmers was creating youtube videos at least online. Yeah. So if you're like an online native generation, you want to create something, you're not a programmer, you make a youtube show and now you can make a lot more than that. speaker 1 [00:23:52-00:23:55]: Yeah, you can be wherever you want. Exactly. So exactly. It'd be very exciting. speaker 2 [00:23:55-00:23:57]: Yeah, any other hot takes for us. speaker 1 [00:23:57-00:24:27]: I'm curious about your thoughts about this actually like so i feel like a lot of people are saying like agents will interact with your product first, right? And then you see all those great companies like building like apis and mcp's. But like how do you think about like, you know, you being consumer for a while. So like consumer is like you gotta get the user to come back and use your product, right? Yeah. But now like the users like, hey, go send the agent to use it. So how do you think about retention and all this like basic stuff? Like how do you, you know, or even like brand equity because the agents just like points on api like yeah. speaker 2 [00:24:28-00:25:29]: yeah, i don't. Okay. So i think one of i don't know is the is the truth but there's i have a few thoughts. So one i think that a lot of the. SOPHISTICATION SOPHISTICATION THAT HAPPENED IN CONSUMER HAPPENED BECAUSE WE HAD TO HAVE INDIRECT MONETIZATION. OKAY, LIKE WE JUST WERE NEVER CHARGING CONSUMERS DIRECTLY FOR THESE PRODUCTS, WHICH IS WHY YOU GOT ADS AND STUFF, ADS AND JUST LARGE SCALE NETWORKS, AND WE ALL OBSESSED WITH RETENTION AND ENGAGEMENT AND WHALES AND ALL OF THESE THINGS REALLY, REALLY MATTERED BECAUSE WE DIDN'T SIMPLY CHARGE PEOPLE FOR PRODUCTS. SO I THINK ONE BIG THING THAT'S ACTUALLY REALLY HELPED IN THE AI ERA WITH THAT IS THAT CONSUMERS ARE NOW EXCITED TO TRY NEW THINGS, THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY, THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY A REALLY HIGH PRICE POINT. There's also consumption revenue and consumer for the first time like tokens. Yeah, if you like tokens, if you're subscription plus your token. So and then the actual like the sort of blessing in disguise is that there are real costs as well. You have these inference costs. So you're like, wow, we have to charge our customer on day one. So I think one thing is that like the business model simplification, I think will really help with a lot of what you're describing. speaker 2 [00:25:30-00:25:53]: Two, I think that a lot of the products will have a sort of, you know, it'll have an API interface for your agents to interact with or for, you know, for transactional sort of rote things. Yeah. And then it'll have like a consumption based interface as well. So you can also imagine like a mobile app, or there's like the feed, but then you can kind of turn it over to where the wires are, and you can just ask for things to get done, or you can just see the log of the things that got done. speaker 1 [00:25:53-00:25:54]: Yeah, maybe people will do both right? speaker 2 [00:25:54-00:26:01]: I mean, you can imagine credit karma where we worked, you know, like once in while, you want to just take a look at your score history and a few other maybe credit card offers. I don't know. speaker 1 [00:26:01-00:26:03]: I mean, yeah, yeah, if I get my score with all the kind of credit card offers. speaker 2 [00:26:03-00:26:13]: I'll definitely do that. Yeah 100 100 percent, exactly. Yeah, On the other hand, like sometimes you want to just be like, yo, like, can you just fix all my stuff or like what stuff did you fix this week? How much money did I save. you know? Got it, Got it. speaker 1 [00:26:13-00:26:15]: Yeah, it's definitely interesting. Yeah. speaker 2 [00:26:15-00:26:28]: but look, I also just think the whole agent stack is emerging. Yeah, identity, payments, marketing, we don't even even see Li versus MCP like all of these are really new things. And I think a lot of the old playbook goes away. speaker 1 [00:26:28-00:26:34]: Yeah, it's a whole new world. And like in 2025, I thought agents was overhyped, but now I think it's really kind of coming. speaker 2 [00:26:34-00:26:38]: Me too. I know it's just the word is frustrating because it gets so overloaded. speaker 1 [00:26:38-00:26:39]: Yeah, there's like workflows. speaker 2 [00:26:39-00:26:43]: like all this kind of shit. Totally. I've been trying to just say like can we just say like model in a loop? speaker 1 [00:26:43-00:26:46]: Yeah, exactly. More than i use tools. speaker 2 [00:26:46-00:26:49]: Yeah, yeah. But nobody likes to hear that. It's a agents as much flashier. Yeah. speaker 1 [00:26:49-00:27:03]: that's better. Yeah, my hope is that all the stuffs like a lot of people are thinking like we're gonna lose our jobs was probably what happened at some point. But like i hope all this stuff makes just makes like human work more fun like other jobs more fun. You know. speaker 2 [00:27:03-00:27:57]: dude, i don't think we're all going to jobs. Like i really think the and we see this a lot of companies, you know. So we look at a ton of companies and we've seen two different buckets. So. One bucket is hey we dramatically increase productivity for a person or a team. We see this in like recruiting but we couldn't do 100% of the job so we could do the phone screen but we couldn't obviously you know show the candidate around the office or we could do the phone screen and we could like answer all the questions about the company and we could even do the like comp negotiation but we couldn't do the onboarding. Yeah. The other style of company which we see, which is maybe a decagon right or a happy robot, is hey we did 百 分 之 1 0 0 of a job like customer support. You know the customer called in, they had a question, we hopefully resolved their query and then that is it. And that is 百 分 之 1 0 0 automated. I would say that that 2 nd group where you have 百 分 之 1 0 0 automation of a job function is really rare. Almost every ai product ai native x or y we see is able to provide dramatic lift, but it. speaker 1 [00:27:58-00:27:59]: And the last 10% is still these humans. speaker 2 [00:27:59-00:28:27]: Yeah, it's still it's today anyway. It's still humans that do that stuff. And it's interesting too, because the buyer looks at that as software, as expensive software. Whereas in the case of something like a happy robot, ducking on Sierra, they look at it as like cheap labor. So I do think there's a different buyer mindset, but because there's been this difficulty of getting to 100% automation, I think a lot of the efficiency gain shows up in just a different way. Probably not less jobs. Maybe we get like the European style four-day work week. Maybe companies got like twice as productive. I have no idea. speaker 1 [00:28:28-00:28:39]: Yeah. But but you don't think that like a, I I feel like there's gonna be a. Transition from like these like ten thousand plus people companies laying a lot of people off to hopefully like more smaller companies like solopreneurs and stuff like that. speaker 2 [00:28:40-00:29:06]: I think yes, I think that the the sort of shape of the economy is gonna change, yeah, like the amount of concentration, but I just don't think there's gonna be less jobs. I think human ambition has no ceiling, that's true, and human desire has no ceiling. And just read any mildly interesting science fiction book, like there's no way this is the peak expression of all the stuff that we want and we need and we're gonna convince ourselves and you know all the new things that you read about every day is these luxuries peptides and. you know everybody is going to have all of that stuff and want even more. speaker 1 [00:29:07-00:29:19]: You know, dude, I saw Rico tweeted about this. like someone tweeted that like um the the job market is so bad that I can only pursue my dreams now or something like. So like it it's like you know, it's like, yeah, so maybe you lost your job, but like now you have to do your own thing. speaker 2 [00:29:19-00:29:22]: yeah one 100 percent and have a shot at actually achieving it. You know yeah yeah. speaker 1 [00:29:23-00:29:23]: yeah. cool. speaker 2 [00:29:23-00:29:26]: well, awesome man maybe that's a good positive note to end on. speaker 1 [00:29:26-00:29:29]: yeah, it's good note. yeah. cool, good thing you do. Thankseter, thanks having.
2025-02-28|a16z Podcast|OpenClaw、Claude Code 与软件未来:Peter Yang 谈个人代理、一人公司与知识工作的重构
副标题:个人 AI 代理正在改写任务型软件入口,编码代理则逐步从“写代码工具”扩展为更通用的知识工作界面。
节目简介
a16z 的 Anish Acharya 与 Roblox 产品负责人、创作者 Peter Yang 对谈,讨论了他如何把 OpenClaw 当作一个持续在线的个人代理来使用,以及这类代理为什么可能先改写任务型应用的使用方式。对谈还延伸到 Claude Code 与 Codex 的差异、SaaS 会在哪些场景被自建工具侵蚀、IDE 为什么正从制作工具转向思考工具、未来公司为什么可能长期维持极小团队规模,以及 AI 对就业、创业和下一代职业路径的影响。
核心概览
这期对谈的主线非常清晰:任务的入口正在从“打开某个 App”转向“告诉代理要做什么”,而编码代理也不再只被理解为程序员写代码的助手,而是在逐步变成更广义的生产接口。Peter Yang 的切入点很具体:他把 OpenClaw 接到 Telegram、语音、记忆和各种外部工具之后,发现自己最常做的并不是复杂自动化,而是把它当成一个持续在线、带记忆、可调用工具的私人代理来对话和协作。
不过,两人也没有把现状说得过于成熟。Peter Yang 明确提到,OpenClaw 目前依然很“折腾”、很不稳定,默认记忆系统经常遗忘,能力也需要反复提醒;Anish 则强调,现在多数 AI 产品更像是对岗位和团队的强增强,而不是完整替代。但他们都认为方向已经出现:团队会更小、构建会更快、软件边界会更松,产品既要服务人,也要服务代理。
两人进一步提出了一组更长期的判断:未来很多工作的价值不再是手工执行,而是定义问题、快速试错、做方向判断、管理上下文与最终决策。这也意味着,PM、设计师、创作者乃至普通知识工作者,都越来越需要具备某种“构建能力”,哪怕不是传统意义上的工程能力。
关键议题与详细总结
1. Peter Yang 如何使用 OpenClaw:它首先是“个人代理”,其次才是自动化工具
Peter Yang 提到,他很早就开始折腾 OpenClaw,还在它真正爆红前采访过相关创作者 Peter Steinberger。最初的搭建体验并不好,过程很慢、很“janky”,但搭起来之后,它已经能帮他做不少事,比如:
- 拉取 YouTube 等平台的分析数据
- 对接部分账户与服务
- 更新 Google 文档
- 生成简单网站
- 通过消息和语音持续和他互动
但他强调,自己最常用的其实不是这些“能做事”的部分,而是把它当成一个叫 Zoe 的私人代理长期对话。他只养了“一个 claw”,给它起名 Zoe,并且主要通过 Telegram 文本与语音 跟它交流。
在他的日常里,这个代理已经嵌进了很多碎片时间:
- 通勤时和它语音来回
- 睡前给它发消息
- 散步时让它基于长期记忆做复盘、鼓励或洞察
Peter Yang 举了一个很有代表性的例子:有一次散步时,Zoe 基于它积累的记忆,给了他一段三分钟左右的“打气式反馈”,提醒他不要只盯着创作者业务和工作压力,也要看到孩子长大得很快,应该把更多精力留给家人。对他来说,这个体验的重点不只是“模型能说出安慰人的话”,而是它带着自己的长期上下文,以一种消息/语音代理的方式出现,因此主观感受更接近“一个熟悉自己的人”。
他的判断是:OpenClaw 对他来说大约 70%—80% 的价值,来自这种更有人味、更贴近日常沟通习惯的交互方式,而不是底层技术架构本身。
2. 为什么同样是大模型,OpenClaw 会显得更“像一个人”
Anish Acharya 追问了一个关键问题:很多大模型以前也能输出类似的安慰和建议,为什么 OpenClaw 的体验会不一样?
Peter Yang 的回答并不是从模型能力出发,而是从界面与使用情境出发。他认为,装在 Telegram 里的代理,会天然比打开 Claude 或 ChatGPT 更像一个“能随时发消息的人”。它出现在熟悉的消息界面里,可以在床上发、在通勤路上聊、在步行时听语音回复,这种持续、轻量、移动化的接触方式,会让大脑更容易把它当成某种“个人存在”来感知。
Anish 因此把问题拆成两层:
- 一层是消息、移动端和语音这些界面层,是否会强化“它像个人”的错觉;
- 另一层才是记忆、自修改、技能目录等系统层能力。
Peter Yang 的回答很直接:前者占了大头。 他甚至说,自己并没有总是用特别复杂的 prompt;相反,和 OpenClaw 对话时更像在和朋友说话,表达也很口语化、很随意。
3. OpenClaw 的可塑性很强:甚至能被折腾到“给自己打电话”
这期里一个很有辨识度的细节,是 Peter Yang 讲到自己曾经临时起意,问代理能不能不要继续做语音回复,而是直接来一通实时电话。代理告诉他需要先连接 Twilio 等组件,做一些设置;他照着做完之后,OpenClaw 真的给他的手机打来了电话。
虽然他也坦言:
- 延迟很高
- 实际体验并不算好
- 整套东西仍然很不稳定
但这个例子很好地说明了他看重 OpenClaw 的原因:只要有个想法,它常常不是完全做不到,而是可以被折腾出来。 对他来说,这种“任何疯狂想法都有机会被实现”的感觉,本身就很有吸引力。
4. 他为什么认为任务型应用的入口更可能被代理改写
Peter Yang 之前在社交平台上说过“Apps 会死,Claw 会无处不在”,节目里也专门谈到了这句引发争议的判断。他并没有把它表述成板上钉钉的结论,而是给出了一个更具体的区分:
- 最容易先被改写的,是任务型应用。
- 娱乐型应用,短期内未必会那么快消失。
他的理由是:如果一个 App 的主要价值只是“完成某个明确任务”,那当代理已经接入这些工具和账户后,直接给代理发一句话,往往比自己逐步打开 App、点选、填写、跳转更省力。
他举了自己的例子:接入 Mercury、MCP 等各种服务之后,他确实已经没那么常自己打开某些应用了。对他来说,代理更像一个很能干的行政助理——用户只需要给出目标,不必自己执行所有中间步骤。
与之相对,娱乐产品还承载了情绪、消遣和沉浸感,人们不一定只是为了“完成任务”才打开它们,所以短期内可能更难被完全替代。
Anish 在这里补充了一个很有意思的框架:很多人打开 App,不只是要做事,也是想“感受一种感觉”——
- 打开 WhatsApp,可能是为了感受连接
- 打开 Slack,可能是为了感受自己在推进事情
- 打开 TikTok,可能就是为了娱乐
这意味着,即便未来代理能处理很多任务,“情绪性界面”与“功能性界面”未必会完全合并成一个入口。
5. 一个代理如何承接不同场景:Peter Yang 选择了多个 Telegram 通道
面对 Anish 对“单一代理是否能承接所有上下文”的追问,Peter Yang 的解决办法并不是做一个完美统一的大脑,而是先采用更务实的方式:给 Zoe 配多个 Telegram 频道,分别对应不同场景。
例如:
- 一个频道专门做随意的语音来回
- 一个频道用于真正和代理一起做项目
- 一个公开频道用于演示,避免暴露私人信息
这些频道是否共享完全一致的上下文和记忆,Peter Yang 也并不确定;他承认这套方案本身就是从网上找来的某种“janky setup”。但这恰恰也反映出当前个人代理的一种典型状态:很多体验已经可用,但还远没到产品化完善的程度。
6. OpenClaw 的短板:默认记忆系统并不理想,能力经常要靠提醒
对于 OpenClaw 的记忆系统,Peter Yang 的评价并不高。他理解中的默认方案,大致是把记忆写进按天更新的 Markdown 文件里。实际使用中,它的问题包括:
- 经常忘事
- 不主动检查记忆
- 忘记自己会哪些工具能力
- 明明已经接入某个工具,却会说“我做不到”
例如他让代理去更新 Google 文档时,代理有时会先否认自己具备这项能力,而他需要反过来提醒:“你可以,这能力就在你的配置文件里。”
为了解决这个问题,他又额外装了一套更复杂的记忆方案,大意是某种“三层记忆”加搜索工具的组合,虽然他自己也承认并没有完全理解内部机制,只能感觉到“比原来稍微好一点”。此外,他还把提醒写进了代理的 agent 配置文件,要求它在回答问题前先检查自己的全部记忆。
这部分讨论传达出的现实很明确:现在个人代理能否好用,仍然高度依赖手工配置、提示词、组件拼装和反复调试。
7. 实用性与风险并存:真正有用的代理,往往必须拿到足够多权限
Peter Yang 提到,自己对代理的开放程度其实很高。他专门买了一台 Mac Mini 给它用,还给它配了独立邮箱,同时给了它:
- 邮箱读取权限
- 日历读取权限
- 某些文档的写入权限
他也承认,这种做法本身就意味着风险:如果系统行为失控,理论上可能影响更大范围的文件或工作环境。 但他的态度也很明确——如果不给权限,代理就很难真正有用。
因此,这一部分实际上揭示了个人代理落地时的一个核心张力:可用性和安全边界往往是此消彼长的。 越想让它像“真正能办事的助理”,就越要给它接入真实账户、真实文档和真实工作流。
8. 他为什么对 ChatGPT 有点厌烦,又为什么仍然同时使用 Claude Code 和 Codex
Peter Yang 直接吐槽了一个自己很不喜欢的 ChatGPT 体验:模型经常在回答结尾补一句“如果你愿意,我还可以顺便帮你做 X 和 Y”。在他看来,这种设计可能有助于平台指标,但在真实交互中会显得很刻意、很烦人,也削弱了自然感。
因此在日常聊天和创作体验上,他现在更偏向 Claude 生态。但到了编码场景,他并不是单押一个产品,而是区分使用:
- Claude Code:更适合“vibing”,更顺手、更流畅
- Codex:当他真想认真把事情做成时,还是更愿意用 Codex
Anish 对两者的差异做了更细的补充。他认为:
- Claude Code 的优势更多在“使用层”和“外设层”
比如截图粘贴更顺、语音支持已经在做、与浏览器协作更自然,整体更适合同步协作与保持心流。 - Codex 的优势更多在“模型层”
它会花更多时间认真思考,结果往往更准确,但等待时间更长,有时像在和一个总要停顿三分钟的人聊天。
两人的共识大致是:Claude Code 现阶段更像一个产品完成度更高、用起来更舒服的工作台;Codex 则更像能力更硬、但产品体验还没完全跟上的工具。
9. 为什么编码代理像老虎机:回报与等待时间都不稳定
Peter Yang 说,Claude Code 的体验有点像老虎机;Anish 认为这个比喻非常贴切。两人给出的原因有两层:
- 结果的奖励是可变的
有时输出平平无奇,有时却突然非常惊艳。 - 等待时间也是可变的
有时几秒钟就出结果,有时要等好几分钟。
这种“可变奖励 + 可变等待”的组合,会天然带来某种赌场式、社交媒体式的吸引力:人会不断刷新、重试、期待下一次“中大奖”。Peter Yang 还提到,这种不确定性会打断心流;Anish 则把它与早期社交网络的“变动奖励机制”对应起来,认为它解释了为什么编码代理一方面让人上瘾,一方面又让人失去稳定节奏。
10. Peter Yang 的核心判断:编码正在吞并越来越多的知识工作
Peter Yang 在节目中给出了他最鲜明的一句判断:“编码会吞掉所有知识工作。”
这里的意思并不是每个人都要学传统程序设计,而是说:越来越多过去看似不是“代码”的工作,正在被重新表达成一种可以由代理理解、生成、修改和执行的结构化工作流。比如:
- 写博客
- 写 Google Docs
- 做演示材料
- 搭网页
- 处理分析和结构化产出
他举了一个自己的具体工作流:写博客时,他已经很少从零开始打字,而是先让 Claude Code 基于自己的输入和反馈产出第一版,再由自己修最后 20%。他的描述是:现在几乎所有内容型工作,都会先让 AI 做前 80%,自己再做后 20%。
他还明确表示,自己不想再回到从空白文档开始写 PowerPoint 或 Google Docs 的方式。对他来说,这些看似“文档型”的工作,本质上也越来越像在和一个编码/生成代理协作完成。
Anish 对这点的补充,是引用了类似 Satya Nadella 的一个经典说法:Excel 其实已经是世界上最流行的编程语言之一。 很多人并不把它当成“编程”,但它本质上也是在用结构化方式描述、求解和自动化问题。按照这个逻辑,编码代理只是把这种“人人都在做某种编程”的现实,再放大很多倍,并且扩展到写作、分析、设计等更广阔的领域。
11. IDE 正在从“制作工具”变成“思考工具”
Anish 提出了一个很重要的观察:IDE 的角色正在变化。
过去 IDE 更像一个“制作工具”——人想清楚了,再在里面把东西做出来。现在随着执行成本迅速下降,下一代 IDE 和多代理环境更像是:
- 快速试错的地方
- 低成本尝试多个方案的地方
- 通过“先做出来再观察”来帮助思考的地方
Anish 形容自己的做法是:先让编码代理以非常粗糙、甚至很笨的方式把一个功能做出来,哪怕过程里不断“锤”它直到能跑;然后再让它回过头,总结如果重来一遍会怎么设计得更好,最后再据此重构起点。也就是说,试做本身已经变成思考的一部分。
这也引出了他们对 Figma 的讨论。Peter Yang 认为设计师如果完全不学 vibe coding,未来几年可能会显得过时;但 Anish 的反驳是,像 Figma 这样的工具不只是“执行设计”的工具,也可能是“进行设计思考”的工具。如果一款工具既服务执行,又服务思考,它在新栈里仍然可能保持强相关性。
12. SaaS 会不会被替代:更可能先冲击简单、边界清晰的产品
在 SaaS 是否会被“vibe coding 自建工具”替代的问题上,两人的看法都比较细。
Peter Yang 提到,他最近和一家 AI 原生、做 app generation 的公司交流时,对方内部的一些 “vibe coders” 正在尝试用编码工具重建自己正在付费购买的内部 SaaS。这说明:当内部开发门槛快速下降时,确实会有人重新审视“我为什么还要为这个 SaaS 付费”。
但他并没有因此断言“大部分 SaaS 都会死”。相反,他也承认:
- Slack 这类产品可能还有很长的生命力,因为它也可能成为人与代理、代理与代理交流的场所
- 一些更复杂的 SaaS,不容易被轻易重建
Anish 的反驳也很现实:很多 SaaS 每月只要几十美元,而自建一个替代品意味着持续维护、更新、稳定性和运维成本。对多数公司来说,自己维护一个“Calendly 替代品”,未必比直接付费更划算。
两人的讨论最后更接近一个趋势判断,而不是非黑即白的结论:
- 流程简单、边界稳定、功能相对标准化的 SaaS,更可能先受到冲击
- 复杂、持续维护价值高、需要长期可靠性的 SaaS,短期内仍有明显优势
- 产品是否“被替代”,很可能不是彻底消失,而是购买理由被削弱、使用入口被改写
13. “business in a box” 还很早期,但已经展示了新路径
节目中还 briefly 提到了某类“business in a box”平台。Peter Yang 认为,这类产品已经能让人看到一种未来的可能性:普通人不需要传统团队,也许就能在 AI 的帮助下启动一个小业务。
但他对现状的判断仍然比较保守。他觉得现在这些工具还偏早期,甚至会出现某种明显不贴合用户意图的情况,比如系统让他去跑 Facebook Ads,而他的直觉是:“我为什么要去跑 Facebook Ads?” 这说明今天的这类平台还没有真正进入“足够聪明地理解具体业务目标”的阶段。
Anish 则更看重它背后的结构性意义:哪怕这些工具最终不能支撑传统 VC 口径下的巨大市场,也可能帮助很多人建立一个年收入几万美元到十几万美元的小生意。 对风投来说这不一定是大公司,但对个人来说,可能已经足够改变人生轨迹。
14. 代理先与产品交互,会怎样改变留存、品牌和消费互联网逻辑
Peter Yang 提出了一个很关键、也很“产品经理”的问题:如果未来越来越多时候不是用户自己来用产品,而是用户让代理先去调用产品,那传统消费互联网里关于:
- 留存
- 回访
- 品牌
- 参与度
这些指标和策略,还成立吗?
Anish 的回答分成两层。
第一层是商业模式的变化。他认为过去很多消费产品之所以特别重视留存、参与度、网络效应和“鲸鱼用户”,本质上是因为并没有直接向消费者收费,所以只能依赖广告或大规模网络来间接变现。而 AI 时代出现了一个很大的变化:
- 消费者愿意尝试新工具
- 愿意直接付费
- 价格带也比传统消费产品高
- 还出现了 subscription + token/用量计费 的组合
- 同时,推理成本真实存在,逼着产品 从 Day 1 就明确收费逻辑
他的意思是,AI 产品的商业模式正在变得更直接、更简单,这会反过来弱化一部分旧时代对留存和 engagement 的过度依赖。
第二层是产品形态的变化。Anish 认为,未来很多产品可能天然要同时提供两层界面:
- 给代理用的接口层 / API 层
- 给人用的查看、控制、浏览、审计层
他举的例子是 Credit Karma。用户有时候还是想自己看看分数走势、信用卡推荐等信息;但另一些时候,用户可能只想问一句:“这周你帮我修复了什么问题?帮我省了多少钱?”
也就是说,未来不少产品既不是纯“人用界面”,也不是纯“代理后端”,而会同时兼容这两种使用方式。
15. Agent stack 还在形成中:身份、支付、营销、CLI vs MCP 都是新变量
Anish 明确提到,整个 agent stack 还在形成中,很多基础层都仍是开放问题,包括:
- 身份(identity)
- 支付(payments)
- 营销(marketing)
- CLI 与 MCP 等不同接口范式
他的判断是:这些基础设施变化,意味着很多旧产品时代的 playbook 都会失效或至少要重写。Peter Yang 也回应说,自己在 2025 年初还觉得 “agents” 这个词被过度炒作,但到现在已经明显感觉到,这个方向正在真正靠近可用性。
两人还都提到,“agent” 这个词本身已经被用得非常泛,有时只是 workflow,有时只是 model in a loop,有时才是大家想象中的自主代理。但无论术语如何变化,“模型在循环中调用工具并完成任务” 这一层现实,已经开始出现商业和产品后果。
16. 未来公司为什么可能更小:对齐成本、情绪摩擦和组织噪音都太高
Peter Yang 在组织形态上的判断也非常鲜明。他说,随着公司变大,往往也会变得越来越难受,因为:
- 需要对齐的人越来越多
- 会议越来越多
- OKR、评审、协调和解释性工作迅速膨胀
- 真正用于创造和交付的时间反而被挤压
他回忆自己经历过那种在会议室里花三小时讨论 OKR 的时刻,会明显觉得“这在浪费生命”。因此,他非常希望未来更多公司能尽量保持小规模。他设想的状态是:
- 原来一个 10 人产品团队
- 未来也许只保留 2—3 个核心成员
- 其余大量执行和支持工作由代理承担
他并没有把这说成所有公司都会如此,而是更像一种强烈倾向:这一代创业者很可能会主动追求“小而强”的公司形态。
Anish 进一步补充了一个视角:代理不只是提高效率,也可能降低工作中的情绪摩擦。例如:
- 复杂协商可以先由代理完成
- 冲突型 Slack 线程可以减少
- 很多人际拉扯中的主观性和情绪性可以先被系统吸收
他甚至设想,如果未来两个人或两个团队要谈判,可能先是双方代理去对齐,再由人来确认。这样,人类就不必总被卷进 50 条消息来回争执的线程里。
17. PM、设计师和知识工作者:保留下来的价值更偏向判断与构建,而不是纯协调
Peter Yang 说,自己一边做 PM、一边做创作者,会越来越强烈地感到:很多 PM 真正想做的,其实是创造产品,而不是管理流程。
他还给出一个很直白的观察:他认识的很多 PM,晚上和周末都在偷偷 vibe coding。
Anish 也分享了自己的职业感受:很多人早期会把 PM 视为更高阶、更有地位的路径,但走到后面会发现,纯 PM 的工作并不总能带来“亲手把东西做出来”的满足感。真正让人上瘾的,还是构建、发布和看到成果落地。
不过,他们并没有因此说 PM 会消失。相反,Peter Yang 明确承认,PM 仍然有一些非常重要的技能会持续存在,例如:
- 和用户对话
- 理解真正的问题
- 判断该做什么
- 识别产品机会
只是未来这些能力很可能要和更强的构建能力结合起来。也就是说,只会写文档、做对齐、开会的角色,会越来越难证明自己的必要性。
对于设计师,他们的结论也更接近“升级”而不是“淘汰”:Figma 还很重要,但如果设计师完全不接触 vibe coding,未来几年可能会明显落后。
18. 节奏不只是更快,而是“局部高速 + 全局慢想”
Peter Yang 认为,今天有了这么多 AI 工具之后,人很容易同时朝十个方向冲,结果是又快又乱。所以他也强调,某些时候必须慢下来,想清楚自己到底要去哪里。与此同时,他对传统那套年度规划、长周期线性推进的方式明显不耐烦,觉得在现在这个环境里已经越来越不适用了。
Anish 给出了一个更系统的节奏模型:
一旦看到了某个局部高点,就应该用代理极快地爬到那个高点;但在寻找下一个高点时,人反而需要停下来、抽离、去“touch grass”、做随机游走。
换句话说,未来有效的工作节奏不太像“永远高强度冲刺”,而更像:
- 在已知方向上高速表达和实现
- 在未知方向上保留慢速感知与判断
19. 一人公司、超小市场和下一代路径:更多人会拥有真实的“做点什么”的机会
两人都对更广泛的个人创业持乐观态度。Anish 特别提到,过去很多创业讨论默认是“能不能做成十亿美元公司”,但在 AI 降低构建门槛之后,可能会出现大量:
- 市场规模不够支撑传统 VC
- 却足以支撑一个人过得很好的小生意
比如面向某个很细分市场的 10 万美元年收入产品,对风投不够大,但对普通人已经足够改变生活。这意味着创业机会会从极少数人参与的游戏,变成更多人都能尝试的路径。
Peter Yang 甚至把这件事直接投射到对子女的想象里:他希望自己的孩子未来在高中时就能做出一些小业务,而不必默认走“大学—大公司”那条传统路径。
Anish 对“孩子都想当 YouTuber”的社会焦虑也给出了正面解读:过去大家担心孩子只想做内容,其实那背后可能代表的是想拥有自主性、想创造、想直接面对市场。以前如果不是程序员,在线上能构建的东西有限,于是做 YouTube 成了主要通道;现在 AI 正在让非程序员也拥有更丰富的构建方式。
20. AI 会不会让工作大规模消失:他们更倾向于“重组”而非“归零”
Peter Yang 表达了一个朴素的期待:哪怕 AI 会带来一些失业和岗位调整,他仍希望结果是让人的工作更有创造性、更有趣,而不是只是把人从系统里挤出去。
Anish 从投资人视角给出了更细的拆分。他说,当前看到的 AI 公司大致有两类:
- 显著提升某个岗位或团队效率,但做不到完整替代
- 真正把某个边界清晰的职能做到接近 100% 自动化
他认为第二类其实很少见。像招聘、客户支持等场景里,AI 也许能完成电话筛选、回答问题、部分协商,但很多最后 10% 的环节仍然需要人来处理。而那些能做到几乎全自动闭环的案例,仍然是少数。
因此,他不太相信“总工作岗位会明显变少”这个简单结论。更可能发生的是:
- 大型公司会缩编
- 小公司和独立创业者会增多
- 组织结构会变
- 人的工作内容会变
- 但工作未必总量更少
Anish 给出的核心理由是:“人类的野心没有天花板。”
只要人还会不断想要新的产品、新的服务、新的体验和新的欲望满足,生产力提升未必只会削减岗位,也可能不断制造新的工作和新的市场。
Peter Yang 最后用一句带点黑色幽默的话呼应了这一点:现在就业市场这么差,也许反而逼得一些人“只能去追自己的梦了”。而在这个时代,他们第一次真的更有机会把它做出来。
关键数字与明确信息
- 70%—80%:Peter Yang 认为,OpenClaw 对他的价值主要来自更“像一个人”的消息/语音交互体验。
- 80% / 20%:他写博客等内容时,常先让 AI 完成前约 80%,自己再修最后 20%。
- 10 人 → 2—3 人:他预计未来一部分产品团队可能从十人左右缩到两三位核心成员,再配合大量代理。
- 100% 自动化仍罕见:Anish 认为,目前多数 AI 产品更像显著提效,而不是把完整工作函数彻底自动化。
对谈中的实践启发
Peter Yang 倾向于的做法
- 把代理接入真实工作环境,但尽量做隔离:例如单独准备设备和邮箱,再逐步开放邮箱、日历、文档等权限。
- 把代理当持续协作者,而不只是问答工具:在通勤、散步、睡前等场景里持续积累上下文。
- 通过多个频道分隔不同上下文:把私人对话、项目协作、公开演示拆开。
- 接受“先让 AI 做 80%”的新工作流:尤其在写作、文档、原型、轻量开发等场景中,不再从空白页开始。
Anish Acharya 补充强调的方向
- 产品应同时考虑“人类界面”和“代理界面”:既要能被代理调用,也要方便人查看、控制、审计与理解。
- 未来商业模式会更直接:消费者愿意为 AI 直接付费,token/用量计费与推理成本会改变产品设计与增长逻辑。
- IDE 与工具链的重点正在从执行转向思考:快速试错、验证和重构,将成为比“手写一切”更重要的能力。
- 高速执行不等于一直狂奔:在方向确定时尽快爬坡,在寻找新方向时保留慢思考。
两人共同指向的能力变化
- PM 仍然需要用户理解与问题判断,但越来越需要亲手构建和快速验证。
- 设计师短期不会消失,但如果完全不学习与 AI 协作的构建方式,未来几年可能会落后。
- 普通知识工作者的核心竞争力,正在从纯执行迁移到问题定义、审美判断、试错速度与整合能力。
仍存在的不确定性
- OpenClaw 记忆系统的具体技术细节,Peter Yang 自己也没有完全讲清,只能确认默认方案容易遗忘。
- 多个 Telegram 通道之间是否共享完整上下文,节目中没有明确答案。
- 任务型应用的入口会被改写到什么程度、什么时间发生,两人讨论的是趋势,不是确定时间表。
- 哪些 SaaS 会被自建工具侵蚀、哪些会长期稳定存在,目前仍明显分化。
- “business in a box” 能否真正让大规模普通人稳定创业,现在看得到方向,但产品阶段还偏早。
- 岗位变化最终会体现为失业、工时下降,还是更多小公司和个体经营者出现,两人偏乐观,但都承认演化路径仍未完全清晰。
结论回顾
- 个人代理更可能先改写任务型软件的入口:用户不一定消失,但越来越多时候会先告诉代理“去完成这件事”。
- 编码代理的意义正在外溢:它不只是在写代码,而是在成为越来越多知识工作的生成与执行接口。
- 短期内更现实的图景不是“所有人失业”,而是团队更小、工作流重构、软件边界松动、人与代理共同完成工作。
- 未来最重要的人类价值,越来越不是从零手工完成执行,而是看见方向、提出问题、快速试错、做最终判断。